michigan xfinity

• Don't focus too much on prior Michigan results.  Last year the teams were running the high down force, low horse power package that evolved into the current Cup Series package.  This year, the Xfinity package is completely different and will race more like the old Cup Series package with speeds up to 200 mph into turns 1 and 3.  In prior years, we had multiple Cup guys in the race so that skewed the results in those races too.  This race has a whole different package with only one Cup guy in Paul Menard.
• At the top end, Christopher Bell was very impressive in practice.  He had the best single lap time by .2 second in final practice.  He was down in 9th on the 10 lap average chart but I think that's because all/most of the guys in front of him had a fresh set of tires for a long run at the end of final practice.  Custer and Reddick looked strong as well.  Custer won the only other race on a 2-mile track this season at Auto Club in California.  Bell was 3rd and Reddick was 4th (Kyle Busch was 2nd).  Once again, I expect the race winner to come from the Big Three.
  • I think it's possible to use 2 of the 3 and still have a strong lineup.  We'll have to wait for qualifying to see where the values are and how these three qualify before making a final call.
• There are numerous good targets in the $7,800-$9,200 range.  A lot of who we're most interested in here will also depend on qualifying spot because they all have pretty similar profiles.  Here are the guys I'm most interested in:
  • Austin Cindric -- Consistently strong throughout the year.  Although he hasn't led many laps or run a lot of fastest laps, he has finished the last six races in the Top 10 and has Top 10 finishes in 10 of 12 races overall this season.
  • Noah Gragson -- Top 6 finishes in the last two races.  This is a JR Motorsports team with a very talented young driver who may be starting to find his stride in his first full Xfinity season.
  • Paul Menard -- Will be in top notch Penske equipment.  Has been running this Xfinity race most years and has 6 Top 5 finishes in the last 9 Xfinity races at Michigan.
  • Michael Annett -- Top 10 finishes in last three races.  Showing improved speed in recent weeks.
  • Jeb Burton -- Again we're talking about a top notch JR Motorsports car priced below $8K.  That just shouldn't be pretty much regardless who is behind the wheel.  Jeb has been in this car twice this year and finished those races 7th and 5th with 46 and 41 DK points.
• The low end is tough because it's so hard to know what all the agendas are and what kind of equipment they have.  That's even more important at a 2 mile track like Michigan where you need a strong and reliable engine to keep up.
  • BJ McLeod and Stephen Leicht have been solid lately and generally attempt to run the full race.  Both have an upside of about 18th place but most likely finishing spot around 20th-24th.
  • Tommy Joe Martins might be an option too.  He's been in this #99 car six times this year and has three very good finishes of 19th, 20th and 21st.  The car is sponsored, so I'm pretty confident they will try to run the whole race.  He finished 20th earlier this year at the 2-mile track in California.
  • In the past I've been fine with Timmy Hill and Chad Finchum but they have been really inconsistent lately.  Hill can be up or down but usually qualifies well enough that he will kill you with negative points if he's out early.  Finchum usually doesn't qualify well, but he's also coming off three straight finishes of 30th or worse in the #42 car.  I don't really trust either for cash games and am generally out on the entire MBM stable of cars right now.