nashville xfinity

A solid winning night with the Trucks both in DFS and 4 for 4 winners on the H2H bets I posted. On the Xfinity side, it all starts with Kyle Busch. In practice Friday, he was over .2 seconds per lap faster than the next car and showed he's going to have the car to beat on Saturday. Harrison Burton was able to keep pretty close to him on a longer run near the end of practice, but Burton also had 15 lap newer tires. Burton looks like he'll have a Top 5 car, but Kyle is still the man to beat.

So what to do after starting off with KB--

• Depending how qualifying goes, it may make sense to run a Kyle plus all position difference guys. And who those guys are will obviously all depend on Saturday's qualifying. Really anyone could be in play.
• Allgaier, Burton and Hemric are all great choices if they qualify outside the Top 10.
  
  • Allgaier in particular in a top target for me. Very good on concrete tracks, very good at places like Iowa and Richmond that have flatter corners like this and very good at the hot, sunny races this year. He didn't have the best speed in practice, which has me a little concerned, but I'm still very interested.
    
  • Burton and Hemric are fast every week and the Gibbs cars looked really strong in practice.
• Annett and Moffitt and (to a lesser extent) Herbst and Snider might be decent plays depending on qualifying. Annett and Moffitt are much safer. All seem affordably priced if they have +10 position difference outlooks.
• I like the potential in the $6k-$7k range and can totally see using Martins, Yeley, Brown and/or Clements. Chances are one or two of these guys qualifies 25th or worse and that would make them very attractive plays.
  • You could possibly lump Sieg in with this group, but his team sometimes tries to play games with pit strategy and it seems to blow up in their face more often then not. He's going to need a win to make the playoffs, so they might lean more on these goofy strategies to try to steal one as the regular season starts to wind down. I'd avoid unless the position difference is just too great to pass up.
• I'd normally like all three DGM cars -- Josh Williams, Alex Labbe and Dillon Bassett -- at sub-$6k prices, but they were all WAY off in practice and were 33rd, 37th and 38th on the single lap speed chart. For the price, though, they still may be good options if they qualify in the 30s because they are all solid drivers, with Williams and Labbe having a big edge over Bassett. 
• On the cheapest end, Timmy Hill could be a good choice. He's really, really cheap. And, if he qualifies for the race, he'll probably start pretty far back. This #13 car desperately needs a good finish for the owners points race -- which dictates who gets a spot in the races where there is no qualifying. So, while the Carl Long cars do fail fairly often, at least we know they're not going to be parking this car for no reason.

Bets -- Don't love a whole lot here. Here is one I'm thinking about, but have not yet played. Going to recheck lines in the morning:

• Burton -110 Gragson