new hampshire cup

This is an interesting slate with a number of different ways to go. In the end, I think we've got some great plays in the $9-10k range, so I'm looking to load up on three of those guys and take my chances fading the most expensive drivers. The biggest risk with that approach is that one of the Kyles (Larson or Busch) dominates the race. On balance, I think the value in the $9-10k range is just too good to pass up.

• I like the over $10k drivers. I really do. Larson has been a beast and I can see him dominating just like he did at Nashville in this same package. Kyle Busch has been really strong lately and could dominate from the pole. Even William Byron is a strong play. I wouldn't fault anyone who choses to pay up for those guys.
• Denny Hamlin - He dominated the two races this year that I find most comparable at Martinsville and Richmond. He led 276 laps and scored 145 DK points at Martinsville and he lead 207 laps and scored 134 DK points at Richmond. He's finished 2nd in the last two races at New Hampshire and scored 90 and 118 DK points in those races.
• Martin Truex - I just don't get pricing Truex down to almost $9k. Short, flat tracks are his strongest track type. He has two wins already this season at these tracks (Martinsville and Phoenix) to go along with a Top 5 at Richmond. He's finished in the Top 6 in the last five New Hampshire races. Just too cheap for a guy who should finish in the Top 5 and can certainly dominate this race.
• Joey Logano - Another guy with a superb record with this 750 HP package. Four straight Top 10 finishes at New Hampshire. He starts 15th and had Top 5 upside. Things would have to really go sideways for him to not hit 5x the $9,500 price tag. (Basically William Byron, but for $1,100 less.)

The other tier I'm really focused on is the $7-8k range.

• Christopher Bell - Killed the field in the Xfinity race Saturday and the Cup 750 HP cars race much closer to the Xfinity package than the Cup 550 HP cars do. So that win means something and what Bell learned can certainly help in the Cup race. Bell has won the last three Xfinity races here. At the short, flat tracks this year he's finished 9th, 7th, 4th and 9th.
• Ricky Stenhouse - Out of the blue he's been really good at the short, flat tracks this season with 12th, 15th, 17th and 6th place finishes. He was 14th last year here at New Hampshire. 
• Ryan Newman - Usually very good at New Hampshire with two Top 8 finishes in the last three races here. He starts 28th and is pretty reasonably priced at $7,200. 
• Ross Chastain - 19th, 17th, 15th and 2nd at the short, flat tracks this season. His work helping his teammate Kurt Busch last week showed that he's starting to get it. He really needs a strong finish to help his shot at getting a decent ride for next season.

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• Guys like Suarez and Almirola are also in play, but they're more expensive and I'm not entirely confident they can hit value at those salaries.
• If you need to save more, I'd look at Eric Jones, Bubba Wallace and Anthony Alfredo as a last resort. ​Adding Corey LaJoie to the salary saver options.