new hampshire cup series

I want to start this week's strategy with some trends.  The "package" this week is relatively similar to what's been run in years past at the shorter tracks, so past history here could be more important.  What we've seen at New Hampshire is that our dominators start up front -- usually in the Top 5.  In fact, in the last three New Hampshire races, the pole winner has both led the most laps in each race and had the most fastest laps in each race.  Let's look at a few details:

• 2018 -- The front row starters led almost 200 of 301 laps.  The pole winner had a race high 94 laps led and race high 54 fastest laps for 50.5 DK points.
• Fall 2017 -- The pole winner and 5th place starter lead all the laps.  The pole winner led 187 laps and had 89 fastest laps for 91.25 DK points.
• Summer 2017 -- The pole winner, 7th place starter and 8th place starter lead almost all the laps.  The pole winner led 137 laps and had 76 fastest laps for 72.75 DK points.
• So we're not seeing dominators come from very far back in the field.  That puts a lot of emphasis on the powerful front row we have this weekend with Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch.  It's easy to envision either or both of them dominating chunks of the race.  Kyle was the guy who led 187 laps here in Fall 2017, so he's done it here very recently.  BK hasn't been one of the recent dominators here, but he also has not started in the Top 5 here -- much less from pole in recent years.  Also, he did dominate Martinsville earlier this year -- and that might be the most comparable track to New Hampshire.  Both profile very well for Sunday.

Looking at the shorter, flatter tracks run so far this year, the same type of trend holds up.  The dominators have come from the very front of the field -- usually the Top 5 starters.

• Phoenix -- 4th (Kyle Busch) and 1st (Ryan Blaney) place starters lead almost every lap and score almost every fastest lap.
• Martinsville -- 3rd (Brad Keselowski) and 7th (Chase Elliott) place starters dominate.  This was mostly BK, who led 446 laps.  But Chase did outscore him 82-79 on fastest laps.
• Richmond -- 4th (Kyle Busch) and 5th (Martin Truex) dominate.  They both lead over 100 laps and hit 55 and 34 fastest laps, respectively. 

So where does all this leave us for driver targets.  First, with 301 laps out there, I think we need to shoot for two dominators:

• I'm all in for Kyle Busch being one of them.  When he has started up front this year, he's been awesome.  He has six starts inside the Top 5 and he's averaged 97 DK points in those six races.  More to the point, he has two Top 5 starts at shorter tracks this year and scored 145 and 85 DK points in those two races.
• I have to go Keselowski with the other one.  The pole sitter at New Hampshire has done so well recently.  And I do see Martinsville as the closest comparable track to New Hampshire and Brad led almost all of the 500 laps there earlier this year.
• I do like Truex, but not as much as the top two.  I didn't have time to fully research this, but I just feel like he's not his best on hot, slick tracks like we'll see Sunday.  It seems like he most often dominates night races or races where the race conditions are a lot different then practice conditions.
• A lot of people might be in on Ryan Blaney because he's cheaper and he put up the best times by far in final practice.  But watching it, it looked like he had a lot of open track in front of him and didn't have any traffic during the super fast run.  I don't know if that speed will translate to the race on Sunday.  And I just think he's much less reliable then the 18 or 2.  That said, the salary savings you do get there versus the 18 or 2 can really help the rest of your lineup.

Who else to target:

• I think you've got to get Bowman in cash games.  Even if you go conservative and predict an 18th-20th place finish, it's still 40+ points.  And with no downside from the 37th starting spot.
• On the cheap end, I like Ryan Preece and Bubba Wallace.
  • Preece considers this his home track and races there probably more often then anyone else in the field.  And he's finished in the Top 3 at New Hampshire in the last two Xfinity races.  He's also finished in the Top 20 at the last two short track races this year -- Martinsville and Richmond.
  • Bubba has been pretty solid lately.  I've said I view Martinsville as the closest comp track and he started 26th and finished 17th there earlier this year.  And, honestly, other than maybe LaJoie I don't have any confidence whatsoever in the guys under him in salary on DK.  You could do LaJoie in a pinch if you need to save the $200 off Bubba's salary, but don't go below that.
  • A few others I like are Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, Austin Dillon and Paul Menard.
    • Newman will start at the rear, but with an official starting spot of 26th, that's not a big deal.  The last 7-8 cars in the field are awfully weak, so he should easily be up to there (if not better) in Stage One.  He's been solid at New Hampshire and already has a 12th and 9th place finish at the short tracks this year.  Will pay off with something like a 15th-18th place finish.
    • I like Bowyer at shorter tracks.  At the three short tracks this year, he's finished 11th, 7th and 3rd and scored 56, 54 and 63 DK points.  Starting 16th and with a salary of $8,400, all he needs is a Top 10 to pay off.  Interesting pivot off highly owned Bowman in tournaments.  Also a good option if you use Blaney and have some extra salary for the rest of your roster.
    • Austin Dillon has four Top 20s in the last five New Hampshire races and has been no worse then 21st.  At the last two short tracks this year, he's finished 11th and 6th for 63 and 44 DK points, respectively.  He was 8th in 5-lap average, 13th in 10-lap average and 11th in 15-lap average in final practice.  I wish he weren't starting quite as high as 21st, but still offers some decent upside to about a 15th place finish at a pretty cheap salary.
    • Menard hasn't been super fast, but has been super consistent this year.  It's hard to believe, but he hasn't finished worse then 24th since the season opener at Daytona.  And his short track finishes so far this year are 17th, 15th and 10th.  He and Austin Dillon both offer some solid sub-$7k options.

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