New hampshire xfinity

Saturday Morning Updates in Bold/Underline

I talked last week in the Xfinity article about how the repaved Kentucky is a single groove track making it very difficult to pass.  And I went through the numbers showing how the Top 10-15 starters tended to end up in the Top 10-15 finishing positions.  That turned out to be true again last week.  Of the Top 15 starters, 13 of them also finished in the Top 15.  The only two newcomers to the Top 15 started the race just outside the Top 15 at 16th and 18th.  And, the only two Top 15 starters who did not also finish in the Top 15 were not passed on track.  They both suffered fatal engine/mechanical issues (Ray Black Jr and Brandon Jones).

This week again, the Xfinity Series will be at what is historically a single groove track where it's very difficult to pass.  For at least the last five years, the cars that qualify up front here completely dominate the race.  In the last five races, every car that has started 1st, 2nd or 3rd has finished in the Top 5.  And in two of the last five races, the cars starting 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th finished the race in the exact same order -- 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.  That's pretty remarkable.  So, again this week, we'll put a little less emphasis on position difference and more focus on the cars starting up front and mid-tier cars starting around 18th-24th that we think can gain a few spots and score a solid points day.  (Two caveats to all this -- (1) This race has tended to have a few Cup Series guys like Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski who we would expect to dominate the race no matter what.  Only Paul Menard is of note crossing over from the Cup Series this week.  (2) Last year, Keselowski won the pole but had to start from the rear.  He easily worked through the field and led 72 laps.  So it's not impossible for a great driver in a great car to pass.  But for a normal Xfinity ride, it's extremely tough.)

I'll again be looking to roster Christopher Bell and Cole Custer.  Both have been very good this year at the shorter, flatter tracks that are most comparable to New Hampshire.  I'm looking at Bell as my #1 Dominator with Custer #2.

• For Bell, despite Kyle Busch being in the race, he led 68 laps at Phoenix earlier this year and had 32 fastest laps.  At Richmond, he had another 32 laps led and 54 fastest laps.  Those are the closest two tracks that have been run this year.
• Bell won the New Hampshire Xfinity race last year -- beating Brad Keselowski.  He started 2nd, led 93 laps and ran 25 fastest laps.  He also won both stages and the race in his last Truck race here in 2017.
• My only concern with Bell is pit stop performance.  He had two bad stops last week that cost him numerous positions both times.  With Custer performing well, Bell can't have that because -- as we saw last week -- he's not going to be able to re-pass Custer on track at these single groove tracks.
• Bell's speed in practice Friday affirms he is Dominator #1.  In first practice, he was about .2 seconds per lap faster in both single lap time and consecutive 5-lap average.  In second practice, Custer cut into that just a bit.  Bell was just over .1 second faster in single lap time and just under .1 second faster in consecutive 5-lap average.  (Justin Haley ran the fastest single lap in final practice, but I'm pretty sure he was in a qualifying set-up for that lap.)
  
• At Richmond, Custer led 122 laps, had 55 fastest laps and scored 107 DK points.  At Phoenix, he ran 4th and didn't have too many laps led or fastest laps (Kyle Busch dominated), but still scored 48 DK points.
• Custer has run two New Hampshire races in the Xfinity Series and finished 9th both times.  He hasn't led any laps and has only two fastest laps in those two races.  This team is at a whole different level this year, though, so I'm not too worried about the history here.  And Custer didn't have a good history at Richmond either, but still dominated that race earlier this season.
• Custer was the second best car in practice Friday.  In first practice, he was second in single lap average, second in 5-lap average and first in 10-lap average -- Bell did not run 10 consecutive laps so didn't appear on the 10-lap chart.  In second practice, Custer was second in single lap average and 5-lap average.  He did not run 10 consecutive laps.
  
• We also have to look at Tyler Reddick.  He's had solid finishes at both shorter, flatter races (3rd at Phoenix and 4th at Richmond), but barely any laps led or fastest laps.  Combined between the two races, he didn't lead a single lap and had only 19 fastest laps combined.  He's clearly been a bit behind on speed and performance on the two most similar tracks this season.
• Last year at New Hampshire, Reddick finished 4 laps down in 25th position.
• Reddick was quite a bit off the Bell/Custer pace in practice.  He was about .3 second per lap behind in single lap and 5-lap time in the final practice.
  
• Justin Allgaier looked pretty good in practice.  He was 3rd in first practice for single lap time and 1st in final practice for 10-lap average.  He was not in the same league as Bell or Custer, but looks set to have a real solid Top 5 or so run.
  

Wanting to grab two Dominator options, you're going to need multiple value plays.  Here's the options I'm focusing on as of now:

• Brandon Jones, Ryan Truex and Noah Gragson are all under priced.  All of these guys looked OK in practice.  Their not going to lead laps, but should finish in the Top 10.
  • Truex is in the top tier #8 car again this week.  He finished 2nd in that car earlier this year at Phoenix.
  • If you take out Daytona, Gragson is on a streak of six straight races where he's finished 7th or better.
  • Jones is probably too risky for a cash game because he is prone to DNFs, but at $8,200 it's just getting too cheap for an experienced driver in a Joe Gibbs car.
  • None of these guys should be priced under Justin Haley or Harrison Burton.
• On the low end, I continue to use guys like B.J. McLeod and Matt Mills because their main goal in the race is to complete as many laps as possible -- which is exactly what we want in a cash game.  Still like McLeod and also Stephen Leicht as guys who will run the whole race.  They are in the top two JD Motorsports cars this week.
  • I normally jump on Alex Labbe, but the #90 car performance is really concerning lately.  I also think this car has no outside sponsorship this weekend, which could limit the race/tire budget.  Ran 16 practice laps and has a pit crew, so should be good to go.
  • Landon Cassill is another guy I normally like.  But he's an avoid in all formats this week because he'll be in the Morgan Shepherd start and park.  This is not the JD Motorsports ride he's been doing the last several races.
  • There's some other guys under $6K that I'd have interest in depending on practice laps run and starting spot.  Chad Finchum, Dillon Bassett and Tommy Joe Martins are the most interesting to start the weekend.
  • Really like Jeremy Clements at $6,900.  In final practice, he was 12th in single lap time and 9th in 5-lap average.  After a rough start to the year, he's finished between 10th-16th and scored at least 30 DK points in the last seven races.