The Fantasy Nascar Guy
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I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion.  I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup.  I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time.  I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly.  I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!

New Hampshire Xfinity

7/17/2021

5 Comments

 
All in on C. Bell for the Xfinity race on Saturday. Joe Gibbs cars have won the last five New Hampshire Xfinity races and Bell has won the last two. He starts 14th, so offers position difference upside too even if he doesn't dominate the whole race. It helps Bell that there is a competition caution on Lap 20. He should be well inside the Top 10 for that restart.
  • I like two other Gibbs cars as well. Brandon Jones starts 23rd, so offers +15 position difference upside and a reasonably safe floor. Daniel Hemric starts 13th, so has a little less position difference upside, but more chance to lead laps. They're about equal plays for cash games in my book.

Outside of the Gibbs cars, Josh Berry is my other favorite. He won the Martinsville race this year, which is another similar short, flat track -- albeit with much tighter corners. Josh is in the #1 Jr Motorsports car this weekend in place of the injured Michael Annett. He starts 21st and has +15 position difference upside with an outside chance to lead laps.

In the middle tier, there are some decent plays that could work, but I can't confidently say any of them will hit 5x value:
  • J.J. Yeley - Really good driver, but somewhat questionable car. He starts 36th and could make it into the Top 20 if all goes well. But he's very expensive and really needs to hit a ceiling performance to hit value.
  • Jordan Anderson - Don't fully trust the car or driver - especially without practice.
  • Brandon Brown - Starts 22nd, so has +10 position difference upside. It does not come without risk, though, because he's aggressive and they sometimes resort to goofy pit strategies to try to steal a win or track position.
  • Brandon Gdovic - Starts 32nd and could get you +10 position difference on his best day. Not a very experienced driver or team though and I'm concerned with no practice.
  • Landon Cassill - Starts 31st with about the same upside as Gdovic but a safer profile since he's a veteran driver with an established team.

Punts are ugly:
  • ​David Star - Not cheap. Starts 38th so can only really go up. Finished 28th and 22nd at the two short, flat tracks this season.
  • C.J. McLaughlin - Very similar to Starr.
  • Spencer Boyd - Starts dead last so literally can't go backwards. Will be slow. We just want him to finish and beat the 8-10 cars that drop/wreck out.
  • Kyle Weatherman - Pretty decent driver, not so decent car.

Bets
  • Brandon Jones +2500 to win. Too high for a Gibbs car when this company has won the last five races here. 
  • Hemric +140 Allgaier. I think Allgaier will be fine. Just think the +140 is too good to pass up for cars that should be pretty equal (if not slightly better for Hemric).
​
5 Comments
Tom Damanski
7/17/2021 06:20:08 am

Do you think Earnhardt or Howard can run Top 20? Any thoughts on using Gragson as a dominator?

Reply
Steve
7/17/2021 10:37:15 am

Everything would have to go perfect for either of those guys to get in the Top 20. Not bad plays, but I'm not real excited about them either.

On Gragson, I could see a scenario where he leads early until the good Gibbs cars can get to the front. I wouldn't call it likely, but maybe a 2nd or 3rd lineup in a tournament.

Reply
Max
7/17/2021 10:31:55 am

Do you know if Berry had any sort of issue last week in the 31 car? They seemed to struggle... I’m tempted to play some Anderson in some tournaments but that seemed like a red flag if they were just that far off without an issue with Berry in the car.

Reply
Steve
7/17/2021 10:40:45 am

I haven't seen anything about a problem with the 31 and don't think there's any red flags saying to avoid this week. Berry raced in the Truck dirt race the night before and I'm guessing they didn't spend much time on Atlanta and just wanted to be conservative and bring the car home without damage. I'm not sure how many cars the team actually has so wrecking one could really set them back.

I could see using Anderson in a tournament. It's a old RCR car and they've had pretty good speed. He didn't make my cash game cut because of Anderson's lack of experience in an Xfinity car.

Reply
Max
7/17/2021 11:45:41 am

Yes, Same here. I would have liked him a little more under 7k. Good luck!




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    My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games.  This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. 

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