New Hampshire Xfinity

All in on C. Bell for the Xfinity race on Saturday. Joe Gibbs cars have won the last five New Hampshire Xfinity races and Bell has won the last two. He starts 14th, so offers position difference upside too even if he doesn't dominate the whole race. It helps Bell that there is a competition caution on Lap 20. He should be well inside the Top 10 for that restart.

• I like two other Gibbs cars as well. Brandon Jones starts 23rd, so offers +15 position difference upside and a reasonably safe floor. Daniel Hemric starts 13th, so has a little less position difference upside, but more chance to lead laps. They're about equal plays for cash games in my book.

Outside of the Gibbs cars, Josh Berry is my other favorite. He won the Martinsville race this year, which is another similar short, flat track -- albeit with much tighter corners. Josh is in the #1 Jr Motorsports car this weekend in place of the injured Michael Annett. He starts 21st and has +15 position difference upside with an outside chance to lead laps.

In the middle tier, there are some decent plays that could work, but I can't confidently say any of them will hit 5x value:

• J.J. Yeley - Really good driver, but somewhat questionable car. He starts 36th and could make it into the Top 20 if all goes well. But he's very expensive and really needs to hit a ceiling performance to hit value.
• Jordan Anderson - Don't fully trust the car or driver - especially without practice.
• Brandon Brown - Starts 22nd, so has +10 position difference upside. It does not come without risk, though, because he's aggressive and they sometimes resort to goofy pit strategies to try to steal a win or track position.
• Brandon Gdovic - Starts 32nd and could get you +10 position difference on his best day. Not a very experienced driver or team though and I'm concerned with no practice.
• Landon Cassill - Starts 31st with about the same upside as Gdovic but a safer profile since he's a veteran driver with an established team.

Punts are ugly:

• ​David Star - Not cheap. Starts 38th so can only really go up. Finished 28th and 22nd at the two short, flat tracks this season.
• C.J. McLaughlin - Very similar to Starr.
• Spencer Boyd - Starts dead last so literally can't go backwards. Will be slow. We just want him to finish and beat the 8-10 cars that drop/wreck out.
• Kyle Weatherman - Pretty decent driver, not so decent car.

Bets

• Brandon Jones +2500 to win. Too high for a Gibbs car when this company has won the last five races here. 
• Hemric +140 Allgaier. I think Allgaier will be fine. Just think the +140 is too good to pass up for cars that should be pretty equal (if not slightly better for Hemric).

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