new hampshire

Adding notes/updates in bold below throughout the weekend:

It's hard to find good comps for this Sunday's Cup Series race in New Hampshire. We've got the new 2020 short track package with a lot less down force compared to last year, so even looking back to the 2019 New Hampshire race isn't a great comparison. (But FYI, Danny Hamlin dominated the race with 113 laps led and 55 fastest laps. He finished 2nd to Kevin Harvick, who led just 41 laps and ran 33 fastest laps.)

The few races the Cup Series has run with this 2020 short track package aren't directly on point either because the tracks are quite a bit different, or they were night time races or, in the case of Phoenix, it was run before the COVID break and after practice and qualifying. So, we're left interpreting numbers that really don't match up well with the race we have on Sunday.

The first critical cash game decision is what to do with Christopher Bell. He's back to starting 35th this week and is $10,100. To hit a 5x return, he'll need over 50 points, which means a 14th place finish or better. That is certainly doable for him and I'd say a finish right around 15th is a reasonable expectation. This will be Bell's first Cup Series race at New Hampshire, but he was awesome at this track in his Xfinity Series races. Last year, he won the Xfinity race, led 186 of 200 laps and ran 99 fastest laps. In 2018, he also won the Xfinity race, led 93 laps and ran 25 fastest laps. That 2018 Xfinity field included Brad Keselowski, Ryan Preece and Austin Dillon all in good cars. So, Bell and his crew chief Jason Ratcliffe (who went with him from Xfinity to the Cup Series) have done really well together at this track. It's a different series, obviously, but it's a good indicator that this car should have a good set up coming into Sunday. Another factor in Bell's favor is that the Joe Gibbs cars traditionally run really, really well at New Hampshire. In the last two races here, the four Joe Gibbs cars have a total of six Top 8 finishes and no finish worse than 16th. Bell isn't in a full Gibbs ride, but it's as close as you can get. Finally, Matt DiBennedetto ran this same #95 car to a 5th place finish at New Hampshire last year. Again, different package and different driver, but another indicator this team should have the information to come to the track with a good set up.

In the end, I think Bell works here because you've got some reasonably priced dominator plays and some decent cheap options to fill out a really strong lineup. My own style is to prefer the safety of Bell here instead of using the $10k to chase another potential dominator. Let's talk about some of the targets to complete your lineup.

Dominators

• I love Martin Truex at the short, flat tracks. He's been great at New Hampshire in the past. His worst race here recently was last year when they ran the high down force package which is out for this year. And even last year, he finished 6th. He just didn't dominate with laps led or a lot of fastest laps. Before last year, Truex led at least 80 laps and scored at least 66 DK points in the five prior New Hampshire races. Truex was strong at Phoenix and Martinsville earlier this year, both of which used the 2020 short track package we'll have this weekend. He was heading for a great day after starting from the rear at Phoenix but got caught in a wreck to end his day. At Martinsville, he led 132 laps, ran 58 fastest laps and scored 112 DK points. Starting from 11th on Sunday, he has +8-10 position difference upside and true dominator potential.
• Kevin Harvick has won three of the last five races here, but he hasn't dominated any of them. In 2016, he won but led only 8 laps. In 2018, he won but led only 12 laps. And last year, he won but led only 41 laps. He did run 37 and 33 fastest laps in the last two New Hampshire races to boost his point total somewhat. But, at the most expensive price tag, I'm not entirely convinced he has the dominator potential to hit the value we'd need. And, even if he does hit value, using him would likely force us into playing some really dicey salary saver/punt options.
• Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch are both too cheap for the upside they offer. Either one (or both) could lead 100 laps or more and crush dominator points. At the same time, they're risky because, if they don't lead, they probably will lose some spots and not get you a 5x return. Of the two, Kyle has been much better at New Hampshire, but his past performance at tracks has not been translating into results this season. I just can't push him as a strong cash game option right now. Chase has run well in this package so far this season, but he's not been good at all at New Hampshire. He has only one Top 10 finish in the last six races here and has fallen below 40 DK points in five of the last six New Hampshire races. He did score 84 DK points at Phoenix and 60 DK points at Martinsville earlier this year and a repeat of either of those performances would crush for us at his $9,100 salary.
• I like Denny Hamlin and think it's either he or Aric Almirola who will lead for a while early on in this race. Denny dominated this race last year, leading 113 laps and running 55 fastest laps for 118.75 DK points. But, he has struggled with this package this season, finishing 20th at Phoenix, 17th at Bristol and 24th at Martinsville. Added: Hamlin will have the #1 pit stall by virtue of his win last week in Kansas, so that could help him gain a few spots (or maintain the lead) on pit road.

Salary Savers

• Daniel Suarez -- I've been using Suarez lately because he's starting 37th every week, is cheap, and is keeping the car clean. He's not going to be fast, but he's going to beat Timmy Hill, B.J. McLeod and the Rick Ware cars on speed. He'll also finish in front of anyone who wrecks out. So we're looking at a floor of about 27th with a +10 position difference, which is 27 DK points. He could sneak up another 3-4 spots if we have more cars than normal dropping or wrecking out of the race. But don't project anything over 30 points here.
• Chris Buescher -- This is a guy I have historically loved and used a lot in cash games. He's kind of a lesser known Ryan Newman who seems to always bring the car home in the 15th-18th range. This year, he's been more expensive and started higher up with the random draws, so he hasn't been on the radar as much. But this week, he starts 24th and is only $6,100. I feel he's a very safe play for around a 20th place finish. Buescher has finished 21st, 20th and 15th in the last three New Hampshire races. And he was 13th and 17th at Martinsville and Phoenix earlier this year, which are the best comps using the 2020 short track package. It's probably a stretch to predict that high of a finish here, but it does give some confidence in projecting a Top 20 finish.
• Rickey Stenhouse -- The polar opposite of Buescher -- which is the reason Buescher is in Stenhouse's old #17 ride this year. Stenhouse is always a big risk for cash games because he wrecks out a lot. But now we've got him starting back in 31st so he doesn't necessarily kill everything if he does have a problem. If he doesn't wreck, you could project about a 20th place finish.
• Ryan Newman -- Similar to Buescher in that he's on the safer side, but a bit more expensive. Newman has finished 6th and 7th in the last two New Hampshire races. Think more 15th or 16th when you're projecting out a score for him this week.
• J.H. Nemechek -- I'm reluctant to pay $7k for a guy that has trouble finishing races sometimes. He finished 25th at both Phoenix and Martinsville earlier this season. He does start way back in 36th, though, so he only needs a 22nd place finish to hit 5x value. That's very doable assuming he finishes the race.
• Ryan Preece -- He's dirt cheap because he just keeps finding trouble.  I'm going to wait until he runs a clean race before using him again. Last week was not at all his fault, but the fact is still that he's finished 34th or worse in four straight races and scored a total of 0 DK points in those four races.

Other - Two other guys I like if salary allows and you don't mind a little more risk.

• Matt DiBenedetto -- I mentioned that he finished 5th last year at New Hampshire in the #95 car. Paul Menard ran very well at New Hampshire in the #21 car the last two years, so Matt should be able to as well. Matt ran 13th at Phoenix and 7th at Martinsville earlier this year in the 2020 short track package. A finish in the 8th-12th range is reasonable.
• Eric Jones -- He's coming off two Top 6 finishes in the last two races this season. And all the Gibbs cars, including Jones, have been good at New Hampshire in the past. Top 8 upside, but lots of risk as well.