phoenix

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE:  Here we go.  Want to clear up one thing the NBC guys got wrong during final practice.  Per Nascar.com, Martin Truex will keep his 13th starting spot.  He is NOT going to the rear for the start of the race as Rick Allen stated near the end of practice.  As of now, the only car going to the rear is Paul Menard for going to a back-up car following his wreck in final practice.  I still don't like Truex much, but he retains some contrarian value in a large tournament if you want a role of the dice.  On to the way I am looking at my lineup now:

• Harvick -- Just lock him in.  Car was a beast and he should be 100% owned in cash games.  You can fade him in a contrarian lineup for a large field tournament but otherwise I'd lock him in.
  
• I like Kyle Busch and will have him on some tournament lineups, but he's too expensive to pair with Harvick in cash games.  As I said in the first post, I'm looking for 2-3 guys from the $8,100-$8,900 sweet spot I identified.  Love Eric Jones.  Really like Almirola, Hamlin (usually strong at these flatter tracks) and Kurt Busch.  Mostly off Clint Bowyer.
  
• I'm pretty locked in on William Byron starting 19th for $6,500.  He ran well here in the Spring and had two very strong Phoenix races last year in the Xfinity Series.  I'm hoping for something like 12th-14th with +5-7 position difference.
  
• I don't like anyone beneath Byron, but you'll probably be forced to take one of them.  Ragan or Ty Dillon but I don't like it.
  
• I'd love to find room for Chase Elliott, but I just can't get comfortable with the guys I'd have to take to make that salary work.  Strong option in a tournament lineup where you fade Harvick. 

So many story lines heading into the final cutoff race before the Championship Race next week in Miami.  We'll cover all the drivers of note, but it's really hard to bet against Kevin Harvick in this situation once again.  See all we have here and then be sure to check back Sunday morning for our final update.

312 laps in Sunday's race, so we have 156 fastest lap points and 78 laps led points available.  In the past few races here, we've tended to see two drivers separate themselves as the dominators.  The main dominator has led about 150 laps with the secondary dominator leading about 50-100 laps.  We'll need at least one of those dominators in our lineup this weekend to hit those cash games.  Onto the driver targets:
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• Kevin Harvick -- He's the most expensive driver this weekend, but also the most likely dominator and very likely to be 80%+ owned in cash games.  He has 3 wins in the last 7 races here and hasn't finished worse than 6th in any of those races.  He'll start from the pole on Sunday.
• Kyle Busch -- He comes in at $700 less than Harvick and is probably the second most likely dominator.  In the Spring race, he started 7th, led the most laps (128), had the most fastest laps (65 vs. 56 for Harvick) and finished 2nd.  At this time, I'm thinking Harvick should headline a cash lineup with Busch being a strong option to headline a tournament lineup.
• Chase Elliott -- If someone other than Harvick or Kyle Busch is going to win or dominate on Sunday, I'm guessing it will be Chase.  He starts 2nd, which might make him a little too risky for a cash game.  But he's finished in the Top 3 here the last 2 races and is a strong contender to run near the front again.
• Clint Bowyer (16th), Kurt Busch (14th), Denny Hamlin (10th), Eric Jones (7th) and Aric Almirola (18th) -- All of these guys have strong profiles and have DK salaries between $8,100-$8,900.  I see this as a sweet spot for this race and will probably look to have 2 of these guys in a cash lineup.  All factors considered, my favorites as of Friday night are Almirola and Busch.  In the last 2 races here, Almirola has started 22nd and worked his way up to finished 9th last Fall and 7th this Spring.  Kurt is just a model on consistency this year.  In the Spring, he started 23rd and finished 10th, so had a very strong run.  Eric Jones remains too damn cheap, while I don't love him starting 7th, he's still under strong consideration for my cash lineup.
• Ty Dillon -- In 4 Cup Series races here, he's finished 16th or better in 3 of them.  Starting 28th with a $5,600 salary makes him a solid play here.
• Michael McDowell and David Ragan are also some salary saving options I might have some interest in.