phoenix cup

Sunday Morning: Seeing some sites with Kevin Harvick +110 H2H against Martin Truex. With Harvick's profile and Truex starting from the rear, this is a great play. One of my larger plays for the season so far. Added a few more plays below.

Cash game lineup thoughts:

• I think you've got to lock in the 2 of Brad Keselowski. His car had amazing long run speed in final practice to the point where he was over .1/second faster each lap over runs of 20, 25 and 30 laps. This is easily a Top 5 car and he's starting 14th. So, even if he doesn't get up and lead a bunch of laps, you're still looking at up to +10 position difference with some fastest laps likely mixed in there. Also, this Penske team as a whole has shown great speed thus far. Logano won Las Vegas, Blaney was right up front at Vegas and Auto Club.
• I can see a case for using any of Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick as a second dominator.
  • Elliott is probably going to lead at least for a bit at the beginning of the race and he was 5th in 15-lap and 20-lap average speed in final practice, so it's not a bad long run car. I wouldn't fault anyone for using him - especially with a sub $10k salary - but I think there are several stronger cars and I have doubts that Chase will lead a whole bunch of laps. I hate to go into a race feeling I'm nearly certain to be eating negative position difference points from a "dominator".
  • I mention Busch because this has been his playground lately. In the last four races here, he has two wins and two second place finishes. In three of those races, he's led for over 115 laps. But doubt creeps in because he was not good in final practice. He was only 13th in 10 lap average and he didn't even complete a longer run of 15+ laps to allow us to compare his long run speed to the other top cars. These are all warning signs he was not at all happy with the car on Friday. I won't count him out, but I'm also skeptical of paying the highest salary for a car that wasn't competitive in final practice.
  • Harvick has also had a lot of success at Phoenix - although not as much recently as Busch. But he was very strong in final practice. He was 1st in 10 lap average and then trailed only Keselowski in 15, 20 and 25 lap average. He starts 2nd and I wouldn't be surprised to see him take the lead early on in the race.
• I love the group from $6k-$7k on Draft Kings. Ty Dillon has been a Top 20 car in five of the last six Phoenix races. Tyler Reddick offers a good floor and +10-15 position difference upside starting 29th. Chris Buescher has three Top 16 finishes to start the season and has finished in the Top 18 in the last three Phoenix races. He's as safe as anyone out there right now. Ross Chastain has +10 position difference upside starting 24th. Even Bubba Wallace has +5 position difference upside starting 27th. Bell and Custer are too risky for cash games, but are on my tournament list.
• A couple other guys to consider are Austin Dillon and William Byron.
  • Dillon starts 30th but I'm not sure he has the upside to justify a $7,500 salary. He was only 25th in 5 lap average in final practice and didn't even do a 10 lap run - which is very concerning. It's my personal preference to shy away from Dillon in cash games and I'm likely to do so here because his salary isn't cheap enough.
  • I like Byron because of his long run speed in final practice. He was 7th in 10 lap average, leapfrogged one car to be 6th in 20 lap average, and then jumped two more cars to be 3rd in 25 lap average. This is a strong indicator that he is able to maintain his speed over the long run better then most other cars. Starting 17th, he's got +10 position difference upside and getting some fastest laps or laps led isn't out of the question.

A few wagers I'm playing:

• Byron +3900 to win
• Keselowski +700 to win
• Harvick +500 to win
• Byron -115 Over Bowman
• Harvick +110 Over Truex
• Johnson +140 Over Bowman
• Kurt Busch -115 Over Bowman
• Almirola +125 Over Jones
• Custer -110 Over A. Dillon