phoenix cup series

I think the path to a cash game lineup is pretty straight forward this week.  There's a few very tough decisions to make, but the general framework is pretty clear.  Here we go:

• Lock button for Kyle Larson.  He starts 31st, so has the highest floor of anyone and a very high ceiling as well.  Should be near 100% ownership so don't overthink this one in anything other than a contrarian tournament lineup.
• Pick 2 of the group of Clint Bowyer, Daniel Suarez and Ryan Blaney all priced between $7,600-$8,400 on Draft Kings.  Bower (starting 26th) and Suarez (28th) are the safer picks since they start toward the back of the field and offer nothing but upside as they move up through the pack.  They both showed decent (but not great) long run speed in final practice and they both are with the power house Stewart Haas team, so we can expect something like a Top 10-15 finish.  They both struggled in the Fall race here last season, but had solid runs in the 2-3 Phoenix races before that.  Blaney (pole) carries mixed signals.  On the plus side, he's been fast all weekend and was shown as 4th in 10 lap average and 2nd in 20 lap average in final practice.  And the Penske team as a whole is ahead of the pack right now (at least at the 1.5 mile tracks) having won both races since the Daytona 500.  On the down side, in the last 4 Phoenix races, Blaney has not finished higher than 16th despite starting in the Top 5 in 3 of those races.  He started from pole here in the Fall of 2017 and led only 17 laps while scoring only 11 fastest laps.  Blaney started from the pole 3 times last year and led a grand total of only 51 laps in those 3 races.  So he hasn't been a guy that sits on the pole and dominates in the past.  I do think he has a Top 10 car and he's very affordable though.  So he is a real option, but definitely carries a fair amount of risk.  Let's look at a realistic scenario.  Let's say Bowyer and Suarez finish 12th and 14th, respectively.  With a +14 position difference for each, they'd score 46 DK points for Bowyer and 44 DK points for Suarez.  They might pick up a few additional points for fastest laps, but nothing too big to make a big difference.  Now let's give Blaney an 8th place finish.  At -7 position difference, he has 29 DK points.  So he'd have to make up 15-17 points with laps led and fastest laps to match Bowyer and Suarez.  He could do that with 20 laps led and 20 fastest laps.  Certainly doable, but not a certainty.  It's really tough with Blaney.  He could dominate the thing and win you the week or he could slide further back in the field, finish outside the Top 10, and crush your day.  Probably too much risk for me to take in a cash game, but I haven't locked anything just yet.
• Pick 1 of Kyle Busch or Kevin Harvick.  Another agonizing choice that can go either way.  I like Kyle.  In 3 of the last 4 Phoenix races, he's led over 110 laps.  In the last 3 Spring races at Phoenix, he's finished 4th, 3rd and 2nd with no fewer than 75 laps led and 34 fastest laps in the race.  Harvick is amazing here as well.  In fact, he's won 2 of the last 3 Spring races -- including last year (although Kyle had more laps led and more fastest laps last Spring).  In the last 5 races here, Harvick has led a total of 111 laps compared to over 350 laps led for Kyle Busch.  In those same 5 races, Harvick has a total of 103 fastest laps compared to 153 fastest laps for KB.  I do think Harvick will have top end long run speed (he had the best 20 lap average in final practice), but Kyle was not far behind him and may benefit from running the XFinity race in near identical weather and track conditions on Saturday.  It's a coin flip between these two but I'm leaning Kyle's direction by a hair.
• Take 2 salary savers from the group of Michael McDowell, David Ragan, Matt DeBenedetto and Matt Tifft.  I don't expect any of them to be Top 20 cars necessarily, although one or two of them could slide in there depending on attrition.  I'd just want them to hold their spot or move up a few places and not wreck out.  Regardless, they're the best of the cheap group because the others either have inferior equipment/teams (i.e., Houff, Currey, Cassill, Ware and Chastain) or are starting too far forward for my liking (i.e., Ty Dillon, LaJoie and Bubba).
• I can't find a way to get him in my DK cash lineup, but I really like Aric Almirola.  He's strongest at the short tracks and starts 14th so has some position difference upside.  He was also 3rd in 10 lap average in final practice, just a tick behind the leaders.  In his last 3 Phoenix races he's finished 9th, 7th and 4th.  He even had a few Top 10 finishes here in the #43 car.  I think he's going to win here at some point with SHR and it wouldn't shock me if it were this weekend.  In any event, a Top 5 finish is a realistic expectation here with race winning upside.  I will have him in a couple of tournament lineups for sure.