phoenix cup

Sunday 1:20pm Eastern -- Adding a few bets in bold at the bottom

There were six races on short, flat tracks last season and Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano were elite performers in every single one of those races. Logano won the Spring Phoenix race and finished all six races in the Top 4. Keselowski won twice (New Hampshire and Richmond) and also had 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes. His car was good enough to win both Phoenix races but he suffered from bad pit strategy in the first race and bad pit execution in the second. I'm playing at least one (and possibly both) of these guys.

Let's look at who else is in play:

• Kevin Harvick - I'm out again this week.  This whole company is really struggling right now. Not a single Stewart-Haas car finished on the lead lap last week. At one time, Harvick was a beast at Phoenix, but not recently. He was fine early in the Spring race but Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski had better cars throughout the race. He was bad in the Fall. He didn't win at any short, flat tracks last year and had only two Top 5 finishes. And the only time he led a significant number of laps at these tracks last year was when he started on the front row. He'll be back in 18th to start this race. He can certainly move up and might be a Top 10 car, but it would be pretty surprising if he gets to the front when he'll be starting behind so many elite cars.
• Chase Elliott - He was really, really good at Phoenix last year and arguably had the best car in both races. He won the Fall race and was leading the Spring race before getting a flat tire in the middle of the race. He dominated the last two short, flat track races last year. I want to get two of the Big Three (Elliott, Keselowski and Logano) in my lineup this week.
• Aric Almirola - Obviously, a pure position difference play here. He starts 32nd, but carries a hefty $9k salary. To hit that 5x target, he'd need to finish 15th or better. He was 8th and 13th here last year and finished four of the six short, flat track races in the Top 8 last season. But, he is part of the Stewart-Haas team that has really struggled this year. It's a very solid cash game play, but I don't think you HAVE to use him since it's very unlikely that he spikes a Top 5 with dominator points to crush anyone who doesn't use him.

I don't really like the mid-tier or position difference targets this week. Let's take a look at a few of them who might be considered:

• Alex Bowman (21st) - He might slip into the Top 10, but he's very unlikely to lead laps or run a lot of fastest laps. In the six races last year on this track type, he led a total of one lap and averaged less than seven fastest laps per race.
• Matt DeBenedetto (20th) - Had four Top 10 finishes at these tracks last year, but like Bowman had only one lap led and had even fewer fastest laps. Seems to be catching nothing but bad breaks so far this season.
• Tyler Reddick (23rd) - Only one Top 10 finish on a short, flat track last season. These tracks don't fit his style and RCR was a non-factor at all the short, flat tracks last year. They just don't seem to have a decent set up for these tracks.
• Cole Custer (24th) - Had four Top 15 finishes at these tracks last year, but also a 28th and 29th place finish. Over $1k cheaper than all the other guys here, though, so probably the best of the list if you can use the savings elsewhere. Custer finished 28th in the Fall Phoenix race, but spent most of the race in the 15th-18th range. It was never shown on TV, but I think he had contact on the last restart and had to pit for a flat tire. He went a lap down and was never able to recover because the race ended on a long green flag run with no caution for Custer to get a free pass and get back on the lead lap. He was 9th in the Spring Phoenix race and also did fine here in the Xfinity Series. I don't love it, but it makes some sense at a reasonable salary.
• Bubba Wallace (25th) - Only three Top 20 finishes at these tracks last year. He's with a new team this year, so who knows if they'll have a good set up that Bubba can drive. I just don't see much safety or upside here and he's not really that cheap.
• Daniel Suarez (27th) and Anthony Alfredo (28th) - Just cheap, punt options that we hope can gain 2-3 spots to add a small, positive score. We'd look at these guys as a means to getting three top tier plays in our lineup.

May add some H2H bets Sunday before the race.

• Elliott -115 Larson
• Logano Ev Larson
• Custer -115 A. Dillon
• Logano +255 to win Group 2 - Larson, Logano, Kyle Busch, Truex