phoenix debrief

I'm happy with the lineup we posted on Saturday night.  It scored 280 Draft Kings points, which put it easily in the money in double up and cash games.  My only disappointment was that it wasn't enough to put you in the money in tournaments.  From what I saw, it finished right on (or right below) the money line in tournaments.  I won a few bucks in one tournament, but came up empty in another with this lineup.  So let's look again at our lineup:

• Harvick -- Another win for the 4 team.  He led 38 laps and had 56 fastest laps for a total of 92.5 DK points.  Truthfully, I thought he we dominate a bit more.  But it looked like he was saving his equipment and not taking chances early in the race so that he had what he needed to win in the end.  He was worth the salary and was the right call to lead our lineup.
• Elliott -- He did exactly what we expected.  A 3rd place finish with 32 fastest laps for a total of 57 points.  It was a good pick and he was relatively low owned at around 30%.
• Almirola -- We said we expected him to be a Top 12 car and he delivered on that.  He finished 7th and got 15 position difference points for a total of 52 points.  His ownership was in the 35-40% range, which is actually a bit lower than I expected.
• Eric Jones -- It was an up and down day for Jones and not as good as I hoped.  He finished 9th and had 7 fastest laps for a total of 38.5 points.  This could have been so much better.  In the final stage, he had worked his way up to 6th but had a disaster pit stop.  He had contact with his teammate Daniel Suarez and had to pit a second time.  That caused him to restart 30th with just 115 laps left in the race.  He made an amazing run to get all the way back to 9th by the finish.  Without that mess up, I think he was heading for a Top 5 and could have had more fastest laps and/or laps led.  I thought he would score in the same range as his teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin and that was a miss.  Kyle led 128 laps had 65 fastest laps and scored 111.5 points.  Hamlin had 33 laps led and 15 fastest laps and scored 57.25 points.  Jones was under 20% owned, so having him not meet our expectations was a big reason why we cashed and won our double ups but didn't take down a tournament with this lineup.
• Michael McDowell -- Burned again by this team.  He had a power steering mechanical failure about halfway through the race which caused him to go a few laps down.  He limped home 32nd for only 11 DK points.  He was over 50% owned for the most part, so this didn't kill us.
• Stenhouse -- Another mild disappointment.  He finished 23rd and scored 29 DK points.  We were hoping for a finish closer to 15th that would have added another 8 positional difference points or so.

Let's also look at a few guys who were on our main target list but didn't make the top lineup we put out there Saturday night:

• Truex -- He finished 5th but only scored 40.25 DK points because he didn't have any significant laps led or fastest laps.  A good call to not emphasize him.
• Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin -- We talked about them above when covering Eric Jones.  We missed on these guys and they outperformed our expectations.  We noted they both had the potential to go off but that we didn't think they would justify the additional salary over a guy like Eric Jones.  It turns out that Kyle in particular was worth every penny.
• Keselowski -- We projected that the 2 team would try some strategy plays but that they were just swinging for the fences and that the numbers were showing an 8th-14th place car.  We were exactly right.  They tried three strategy plays -- twice doing a two tire pit stops and then staying out longer than everyone else in the third stage to try to catch a lot of cars a lap down if a timely caution came out.  They didn't get the luck they needed, so Keselowski finished 15th.  He did score 51.5 DK points, but you were still significantly better off with our primary recommendation of Chase Elliott for $100 less in salary.
  

Now a real quick look at Fontana California for next Sunday:

• It's a two mile oval and Kyle Larson has won the last four Cup races at those tracks.  He won (and led 110 of 202 laps) at Fontana last year.  He also won both Michigan races last year and won the last Michigan race in 2016.  So look for Larson to be a favorite going into the weekend.
• Kevin Harvick is on a mad run right now, but he wasn't so great at the two mile tracks last year.  He finished 13th at Fontana and then 14th and 13th in the two Michigan races.  He did not lead any laps in those races.
• Chase Elliott has six Top 10 finishes in his six career Cup races at the two mile tracks.  He has finished 6th and 10th in his two Fontana races.
• Last year, Martin Truex finished 2nd, 4th and 6th at the two mile tracks and led almost one-third of all the laps run in those races.  At Fontana, he finished 4th and led 73 of 202 laps.

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