phoenix xfinity

The Fantasy NASCAR question for the Xfinity race this week is whether or not to use Kyle Busch and his $14,900 salary.  I'm leaning yes in all formats.  Kyle has done the Xfinity race at Phoenix four times in the last few seasons.  In three of those four races, he has completely dominated the race.  And I mean COMPLETE and DOMINATION.  It's a 200 lap race and in those three races, he's not only won them going away -- but also led 175 or more of the 200 laps and had by far the greatest number of fastest laps.  If he comes anywhere close to that again, you're looking at 120+ points which is absolutely crazy with the lower lap count in an Xfinity race.

In the one race Kyle did not completely dominate, he still finished 3rd, led 39 laps and had +2 position difference.  That race was won by Brad Keselowski, who had a great car, led many laps and might have dominated even more without an early pit road speeding penalty.  This week, Kyle will be the only Cup Series star in the Xfinity race, so his path to domination is clear.

The one Xfinity regular that might be able to give Kyle a go is Justin Allgaier.  He won this race  in 2017 and finished 2nd in 2018.  In three of the last four races here, he's led 69 or more laps -- including in several races with Cup Series stars crossing over.  He finished 24th here last Fall only because he was the innocent victim of an incident on track in front of him.  He will probably be my lead hedge play against Kyle Busch, but in tournaments only.

Christopher Bell has been awesome so far this year and he won the last Phoenix race last Fall while leading 94 laps.  The catch there is that no Cup Series regulars were in that race.  In two Phoenix races with Cup Series guys in them, Bell has come home 4th both times with a total of 5 (out of 400) laps led.  So, unlike Allgaier, he's not shown an ability to lead laps and run up front at Phoenix when Cup guys are in the race.  Given all that, any exposure to Bell would likely be in a third tournament lineup.

The one scenario where I might consider fading Busch is if you have multiple quality Xfinity regulars starting in the back and the salary savers to pair with Busch are pushed up on the starting grid.  That's very unlikely, but you never know.

So, who are the salary savers to pair with Busch if you go that route?  We'll have to see qualifying spots for sure, but some early week possibilities include Ryan Truex (running in the top notch Jr Motorsports #8 car), Jeremy Clements, Roy Black Jr, Josh Williams, Brandon Brown and Bayley Currey.

I may post an update on Friday night if I see anything of note during Friday's two practice sessions.