phoenix xfinity

Saturday Post-Q Update: Coming soon, time permitting. Kyle Busch and Michael Annett are locks for cash games. A lot of value at the bottom end of the salary pool. Probably going to see a lot of Busch/Keselowski and Busch/Allgaier lineups.

My thoughts heading into Saturday:

• You'd be nuts to not use Kyle Busch in cash games. He's very likely to dominate the race, lead the most laps and register the most fastest laps. And there's almost no downside since his ownership should be sky high. If he falters, it's going to hit almost every lineup the same so you're not really losing anything. Last year in this race, Kyle won the race, led 116 laps and had 71 fastest laps for a ridiculous 113 DK points. There was no other Cup driver in that race, but it did have Bell, Custer and Reddick, so it was still mighty impressive.
• Probably fading Keselowski in cash games unless something goes crazy in qualifying.  BK won this race over Kyle in 2018, but that was with the primary Penske #22 team and crew chief Brian Wilson. That's Austin Cindric's full time team and crew chief now, so Brad is in the #12 Penske car. Frankly, the #12 effort was pretty weak last year considering it was manned by Keselowski, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney numerous times. They ran a total of 8 races, had no wins and led 50+ laps only twice. Once was at Michigan where there were no other Cup drivers and the other was at Darlington where the only other Cup driver (Hamlin) had to start in the rear. Not saying BK can't win here, but I think something major would have to go wrong for Kyle for that to happen.
• Allgaier has a very strong history here, but I'm not paying $10,600 for a guy who is unlikely to lead a lot of laps or get many fastest laps unless he has an issue in qualifying and can offer position difference upside.
• All indications are that Jeff Green is going to run the full race. He's running here as compensation for giving up his ride in the Daytona race when RSS sold the seat to Ross Chastain when the Kaulig cars crapped out in qualifying. At $4,500, he's a strong play unless he qualifies crazy high.
• Timmy Hill and Dillon Basset are two other low salary guys I'm interested in. Hill is the better driver and safer pick, although the #61 is a MBM effort and not without risk. Basset is probably in a faster car with more upside but also more risk. I'd peg Timmy for around 25th and Basset for around 20th.
• Myatt Snyder at $6,700 is too cheap. He's switching back and forth between teams this year. This week, he's in the #21 car, which is the stronger team and a full RCR effort. The car should have the speed to slot in the Top 10-12.
• I like the group between about $7,300 - $10,000. I'd be looking for guys least likely to lose spots with the potential to gain 4-5 positions or so. Herbst, in particular, is too cheap at $7,800 in a JGR car, although I don't fully trust the driver talent just yet. He is looking good so far this year though.
• High risk/avoid cars:
  • 47 - Joe Nemechek - possible park
  • 74 - Baley Currey - possible park
  • 89 - Landon Cassill - near certain park
  • 15 - Colby Howard - first Xfinity Series race
  • 52 - Kody Vanderwal - first Xfinity Series race
  • 99 - JJ Yeley - This car is not showing a sponsor and there was a late driver swap to Yeley, which has me wondering since he parked almost every time with RSS last year. I'm not sure on this one, but there should be equal (if not better) options near his price range so I'm staying away.

Wagers I'm playing/looking at:

• Kyle Busch +115 to WIN