phoenix xfinity

The first big question on this slate is what to do with the expensive $10k drivers. To me, there's not a strong case to play Noah Gragson or Harrison Burton. While they had good finishes at Phoenix last year, they never really threatened as a dominator -- which we need from a $10k driver without huge position difference upside. So let's look at the remaining four:

• Justin Allgaier - He's a stud at Phoenix and short, flat tracks overall. He won 2 of the 5 flat track races last year and finished 2nd in another. At Phoenix, he led over 50 laps and ran at least 20 fastest laps in both races last year. Starting 12th, he even adds in some + position difference to add to his upside. It's a great play, but the $12k price tag is awfully high and limits what you can do elsewhere.
• Austin Cindric -  He's never been considered the strongest driver at the short, flat tracks, but he won this Phoenix race in the Fall to win the 2020 championship. He had the best car throughout that race and probably could have dominated even more if not for his patient, methodical approach in that race. It was a really impressive performance. I'd feel fine using him, although I think he'll be challenged for the lead throughout the race,
• A.J. Allmendinger - He's elevated himself into a championship contender by performing really well the last two weeks and winning at Las Vegas. If he can perform that well at the 1.5 mile tracks, he's going to get a bunch of wins this season. A.J. ran one flat track race last year (Martinsville) and was really, really fast. He starts on the outside of Row 2 and has a decent chance to get up front and lead early since you really want to be in that outside lane to take advantage of the PJ1 up high on restarts.
• Riley Herbst - Definitely fits into the category of the one that doesn't fit with the others on this list. But it's a good car starting very deep in the field. There is +20 position difference here with a very safe floor.
• As of now, I'm leaning toward using the two least expensive guys here and spending more to build a balanced lineup with some quality cars starting further back. I think we've got 4-5 different cars that could lead at some point in this race so I don't think we see any one of these guys just crush it and put up a 100+ score. (In addition to Allgaier, Cindric and Allmendinger, I wouldn't be surprised to see Daniel Hemric or Brandon Jones lead chunks of this race.) In short, I think the dominator points get spread out, so I want the cheapest access to those points and then better quality in the remaining spots.

So who are these other guys I'm excited to use:

• Ty Gibbs - Man, was he ever impressive at the Daytona Road Course. I thought he would be good because I knew Joe Gibbs would not put Ty in a bad spot and wouldn't put him out there unless he was in a great position to succeed. But I didn't see that win coming. Starting 27th, this is a great, safe floor with race winning upside once again. The price is way up from last time, but there is still a realistic path to a 6x return (or more) even without leading laps or running fastest laps. Got to use him.
• Brett Moffitt and Myatt Snider - Both are solid plays and should get you some + position difference. They don't have the upside of Gibbs, but they are still good drivers in quality cars.
• Ryan Sieg - Sieg had to make an unscheduled green flag pit stop at Phoenix last Fall that put him multiple laps down. Prior to that he was running in the 10th-12th range -- which is about what we'd expect from him at a track like this. At the four other short, flat tracks last year, he finished 11th, 12th, 15th and 11th. In the three prior Phoenix races, he finished 10th, 13th and 11th. A finish like that would give us a really solid 6x return on Saturday.
• Alex Labbe - Alex rolls off 36th on Saturday and offers +15 position difference upside from there. He's a really solid play in a decent car with no parking risk.
• J.J. Yeley - About the same as Labbe. Just a little cheaper with maybe a little less position difference upside from the 33rd starting spot. I'd feel very good using either (or both) of these guys.
• Gray Gaulding - I like Gray as a driver, but I have more faith in the car Labbe and Yeley will be in, so I'd rather use them.
• David Starr - Starr is scheduled to be in the #61 with Whataburger sponsorship, so I expect him to run the full race. It's not the fastest or most reliable car, but this is still a very good cheap option.
• On Timmy Hill, I'm concerned about him parking at some point. On Loris Hezemans, he has no oval experience, so I'm inclined to avoid notwithstanding that 40th starting spot. That said, I could see using him as part of a double punt if you want to jam in higher priced drivers.

I'll try to add some H2H bets in on Saturday.

H2H Bets Added Saturday at 2pm Eastern

• Jones -110 Gibbs
• Jeb Burton -115 Herbst
  
• Jeb Burton -105 Josh Berry
  
• Allmendinger +150 Cindric
  
• ​Allmendinger -105 Gragson
  

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