Phoenix

Cup Series Notes will be posted late Saturday night--

Cash Games

• Have to start with Denny Hamlin here. The Fox broadcast documented how important it is to sit on the pole here and have the #1 pit stall. It's simply a huge advantage on track and in pit lane. At a track where passing is so difficult, this provides a solid floor that we rarely have for drivers starting on pole. Finally, Hamlin was very solid on a long run in practice so there's not a huge fear that he drops way back in the field absent an incident.
• Josh Berry, Corey LaJoie and Austin Cindric are all in play because they start 36th, 35th and 34th, respectively. Berry and Cindric have both shown decent speed throughout the weekend, so it's a surprise to see them starting so far back. Not sure what happened to slow down Cindric so much in qualifying. For Berry, he had a pretty good lap going but spun coming to the checkered flag. LaJoie has struggled this weekend but the price and starting spot are still attractive.
  
• After this, a lot of things are on the table. Here are a few good options--
  
  • Looking at the practice times, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain had the best long runs of 15 - 20 consecutive laps. Bell, in particular, was about .1/second per lap better over the 20 lap and 25 lap marks. I think they all come in at fairly reasonable salaries and wouldn't say any of them is a bad play.
    
  • The RCR cars of Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon start 31st and 30th, respectively. It's really hard to imagine them going anywhere but up from those starting spots. That said, they were both well off the pace in practice and couldn't complete a 20 lap run at all. So, while they have a solid high floor, I really don't see any upside in playing them absent some kind of Xfinity style Big One that takes out 10 cars in front of them.
    
  • Brad Keselowski (18th) and Alex Bowman (25th) are two others I could see getting interest. Neither has a great track history at Phoenix nor did either of them show great speed in practice. I'd say a 12th-15th kind of day would be a relative success for them.
    

Tournament Pivots

• Martin Truex, William Byron, Chase Elliott and Chris Buescher are all guys I can see as large field tournament pivots coming in at under 20% ownership.
  
• All three of Truex, Byron and Elliott have won here at Phoenix within the past six races and could surprise to lead laps at some point in the race. With on track passing so difficult, they have a huge advantage starting with prime track position.
  
• Buescher finished 5th here in the Fall and I can see him coming in at a very low ownership with Logano and Busch not too far above him and Keselowski right below him.
• Ryan Preece is an option to get off the Josh Berry chalk. He finished 14th and 12th here last year in a very down year for SHR. He's also at his best on the shorter, flatter tracks.

GL