pocono cup (saturday)

A couple of Pocono specific points to keep in mind:

• There's only 130 laps, so many fewer laps led and fastest laps points are out there. More focus is on raw finishing position and position difference.
• It's very difficult to pass (especially for the lead) on track. Restarts can fan out and get a bit crazy, but the races here tend to have long, single file green flag runs with little on track passing.
• Multiple pit strategies are available because you can sometimes pit under green and not lose a lap. Some teams play for stage points and pit during the stage breaks. Others are focused on the win and final result and will pit before the stage break if they won't lose a lap doing so. All the strategy games tend to jumble the field somewhat and prevent anyone from leading a ton of laps.

There's a lot to like in the salary range from about $9k-$10k. Picking the right guys from that level is probably going to determine how you do on Saturday. And there's a lot of good arguments in favor of almost everyone in that range. Let's look deeper at a couple of them:

• If you want to focus on track history, your top choices are Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.
  • Busch has won three of the last five Pocono races, including the first race last year. In the last six Pocono races, Kyle has led at least 50 laps and run at least 29 fastest laps five times. Over those six races, he's averaged 76 DK points and his lowest DK score was 54.75. At his $9,300 salary, he doesn't even have to hit his lowest score in that time frame to hit the 5x return. (Note: Since it's a double header weekend, this race is a bit shorter than the normal Pocono race, so there won't be quite as many laps led or fastest laps points awarded as in previous races.) Obviously, we're getting Kyle at $9,300 only because his current form is not what we'd normally expect from Kyle Busch. But I'm going to have a really hard time fading Kyle at well under $10k at a track like Pocono where he has had an awful lot of success.
  • Harvick doesn't have any Pocono wins, but he has consistently run and finished up front there over the last four seasons. In the last seven Pocono races, Harvick has finished in the Top 6 six times -- two 2nd place finishes, three 4th place finishes and one 6th place finish. Over that span, he's scored at least 51.5 DK points in six of the seven races. He starts 9th and should move up a few spots and give you a really solid day with a potential to lead laps and run some fastest laps. We don't normally see Harvick at $10,100.
• If you want to focus more on current performance, your top choices are Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin.
  • For Blaney, let's take out the Talladega win last week since that's a super speedway. Even without that win, he's still finished in the Top 4 in five of the last six races. It's no stretch to say that he's had the best speed of anyone since we've returned from the layoff. Starting 2nd, he certainly has the opportunity to lead laps and run fastest laps. Blaney has been OK at Pocono with the Penske team. He won this race in 2017 with the Wood Brothers. In the last two seasons, he's finished 6th, 12th, 12th and 10th at Pocono.
  • For Hamlin, he's been just as good since the layoff. If we take out Talladega and the Coca Cola 600 where he lost several laps when the ballast weight fell off his car during the pace laps, Denny has finished in the Top 5 in five of the remaining seven races. And he has two wins in that span. He's also had periods of success at Pocono, including winning the second race here last year. The Gibbs cars were really good here last year and I'd expect one or more of them to lead the race at some point on Saturday.
• The last guy I want to focus on in this price range is Clint Bowyer. Clint finished 5th and 11th here last year. He's finished 11th or better in four of the last five races here and offers a solid floor with some position difference upside from his 18th starting spot. He's a bit pricey at $9,500, but there's a lot to like if you can fit in the salary.
• I could also see using Truex here, but I just don't have a good read on his team right now. Whenever I like him, he has an off race and vice versa. The Gibbs cars were great here last year and Truex finished 3rd in the second race last year. He's also got three Top 3 finishes in the last five races here. I wouldn't try to talk you out of it if you like him, but I don't have a good enough feel to endorse it right now.

As with previous weeks, there seem to be a couple of badly under priced drivers.

• Eric Jones should not be anywhere near $7,100. This is an elite Joe Gibbs team and this is one of Eric's best tracks. In the last six races here, Eric has four Top 5 finishes -- including 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the two races last year. Starting 19th, he comes with a pretty safe floor and 10+ position difference upside.
• Ryan Preece is too cheap at $5,800. He's been pretty consistently finishing around 20th-24th this season and that would be an excellent result from his 30th starting spot at that price.
• Michael McDowell is also probably too cheap at $5,500. But his starting spot did creep up to 26th this week, so he doesn't have all that far to go with position difference as you can't expect anything better than a 20th place finish. He does have a solid track record at Pocono.

The last two guys I want to touch on are Christopher Bell (36th) and Ty Dillon (34th). They are both starting way back in the field and offer really high floors with position difference upside. But they also got priced up to where they are not lock plays and may very well be too expensive. Bell in particular would have to really hit his ceiling of a Top 15 finish to pay off his slate high $11,100 salary. For Ty, this hasn't been a great track and he finished 27th and 29th in the two races here last year. If he could get to 25th, that gives you 28 DK points, which really isn't enough to pay off the inflated $7,200 salary.

Bets
​I don't have much here right now:

• Blaney +300 Top 3 finish
• Blaney +1050 to win
• Logano +1300 to win