Pocono Cup (Sunday)

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​For cash games, double ups and 50/50s on Sunday, we're very likely to see a lot of overlapping rosters. There are 3-4 good cars starting awfully far back and it's really hard to fade any of them. It's this type of slate where I usually play less in the cash games and either save up for future weeks or play a few more tournament entries.

Here are the obvious plays that will be heavily owned:

• Eric Jones (starting 38th) -- He was running fine on Saturday until he got jammed up behind traffic coming out of Turn 3. Jones moved down to go around the traffic right into the path of Tyler Reddick who had gotten a really good run off the turn. They both had heavy damage and, while Reddick could continue riding around laps down, Jones' day was done. He'll be at or near 100% ownership and I can't come up with any reason to fade him in cash games.
• Joey Logano (36th) -- He lead part of the race and was running in the Top 10 with less then 10 laps to go and his left front tire blew causing heavy damage and effectively ending his day. Again, at or near 100% ownership and I can't come up with any reason to fade him in cash games.
• Jones for sure (and probably Logano) will be in back up cars on Sunday, so they will drop to the rear before the green flag. But we really don't care about that since their official scored starting spot is all the way back there already.

The next wave of guys to deal with is a trio starting between 25th-30th:

• Tyler Reddick (30th) -- As mentioned, he was involved in the Eric Jones wreck and had really heavy damage. He finished 4 laps down, but I was really surprised he was able to continue at all. He'll probably be in a back up car starting from the rear on Sunday. He was running fine and his car seemed to have good speed before his wreck. I'd certainly think a Top 20 is a reasonable expectation. It's a very fair $7,800 salary and there's no one else -- other than maybe Aric Almirola -- who is a viable option in that price range.
  • About Almirola, he did a lot of leading Saturday, but got the strategy wrong at the end of the race. He was forced to take tires on his green flag stop in Stage 3 whereas Harvick and Hamlin took tires the previous stop and could do fuel only under the green flag in Stage 3. Clean air is king at Pocono, so I really don't know what to expect from Almirola starting back in the field in 18th position. I'd say something around 10th-12th is reasonable and that would exceed the 5x return we are typically looking for since his salary is only $7,200. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he's mired in the 15th-20th range and can never really go anywhere because it's Pocono. He's a tough call.
• Alex Bowman (27th) -- Bowman surprised me a bit running in the Top 10 for most of the day. Pretty late in the race he said Brad Keselowski got into him and cut a tire. (Keselowski seems to dispute this.) In any event, Bowman's car got pretty heavy damage from the flapping tire and his day was effectively over. He might be in a back up as well for Sunday. I like the play. Again, not a lot to like in the $8-9k range given where guys are starting with the Top 20 inversion.
• Chase Elliott (25th) -- Elliott was running pretty well early on Saturday but ran into a host of problems near the end of Stage 2. He pitted before the end of the Stage and then pitted again during the stage break. He got penalized for an uncontrolled tire and had to restart Stage 3 in the rear. He never recovered. The Hendrick press release also said he was dealing with a gear issue -- but doesn't elaborate. I think Chase is a really strong play. The issue will be that he's in the same price range as guys like Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick who had the strongest cars on Saturday and start 19th and 20th respectively on Sunday. It probably makes sense to go with one of those guys over Chase in cash games.

Harvick, Hamlin, Busch and Truex -- you'll probably want one or two of these guys:

• Harvick won and had a really good car with a really strong history at Pocono as I documented in the Saturday article. He's a great play here and I wouldn't talk anyone out of it.
• Hamlin may have had a bit better car Saturday but Harvick hit the strategy/pit timing a bit better. Again, a great play.
• Busch never really challenged for the lead on Saturday, but he has said he is really being impacted by the lack of practice. Well, Saturday's race was as a good a practice as you could get for Sunday's race. I've got to lean Harvick or Hamlin in cash games because Kyle just hasn't shown it yet in a race.
• Truex is really impacted by the lack of practice too I think. He was strong on Saturday, but I don't think he quite had the speed of Hamlin or Harvick. Can they make the right adjustment and get the strategy right?