Pocono Trucks

Saturday Morning Updates In Bold At The Bottom

The Trucks Series hits Pocono on Saturday afternoon.  There are three unusual things about this race relevant to our Fantasy Nascar strategy:

• First, the entire race is only 60 laps and we've already got two built in cautions at the end of Stage 1 and Stage 2.  So, we're looking at a maximum of about 52-54 green flag laps.  This takes the total points available for laps led and fastest laps down to around 40-45.  That's not to say these points are irrelevant.  In fact, every point is going to be extra valuable this week where lower scores will be the norm.  But it does reduce somewhat the emphasis on Dominator points and put added focus on building position difference upside into every spot in your lineup.
• Second, a related point is that Pocono is such a long track that it allows for road course like pit strategy because you can pit under green without losing a lap.  You can run about 40 laps on fuel here, so it's really a one stop race.  Many teams near the front will choose to pit under the green flag in the middle of Stage 2 as soon as their window opens to run the rest of the race without refueling.  Others -- wanting to score "stage points" at the end of Stage 2 -- will stay out until the end of Stage 2 and then pit under caution before Stage 3.  But, when they do pit, all the trucks that previously pitted under green will pass them and restart Stage 3 in front of them.  So, whoever leads laps at the end of Stage 2 and wins Stage 2 will likely give up that lead before Stage 3 begins.  The multiple strategies available tend to jumble up the field and the leaders, which means you're very unlikely to see one truck leading all or most of the laps.  So, the reduced number of Dominator points should be split up among several trucks even more than usual.  This also reduces the importance of Dominator points and adds focus to the position difference upside.
• Third, two practice sessions and qualifying will all take place Friday with the race on Saturday.  I think this is the first Truck race where we will have the qualifying order a day before the race.  This may cause contests to fill more quickly and will give people more time to work their lineups.  I'm not sure how that will all play out, but it's something to keep in mind.

I'm going to post a few driver notes for now, but leave most of that for the Friday night update I'll do after practice and qualifying:

• Kyle Busch has won two of the last four Pocono truck races.  And his race team (with Christopher Bell and William Byron driving) has won the other two of the last four Pocono races.  So it's been a KBM winner four years in a row.
  • It's very likely the #51 KBM truck is going to be highly owned on Saturday.  This is generally the best truck and best crew chief in the garage.  Christian Eckes is in the truck for the third time this season.  He finished 22nd at Daytona, which is irrelevant.  More recently, at Gateway, he started from pole, led 57 laps and was heading for a Top 5 or so finish when he got spun by the #52.  At $8,300, none of that should scare you away from rostering the #51 truck on Saturday.
  • The other two KBM trucks for Gilliland and Burton are also squarely in play if they offer position difference upside.  These guys have not led laps or run fastest laps this season, but they are very likely Top 8 trucks for the race.  
• Mason Massey, Bryant Barnhill and Josh Reaume are all safe salary saver choices.  They all race for Reaume Brothers.  We've seen all season long that these trucks are slow and aren't even really trying to race anyone.  Their sole goal is to finish the race without damage and beat the trucks that park or get knocked out of the race.  They are slow so they start in the back and tend to make up some spots into the low 20s finishing positions by race end.  Since they start in the back, there's no risk of negative points and they usually provide modest positive position difference for a really cheap price.
• Anthony Alfredo and Grant Enfinger stick out as two guys who are under priced for their expected performance heading into the weekend.  Grant's run into some tough luck the last two races, but he's still been leading laps and running fastest laps.  

​That's it for now.  I'll add some additional driver targets note after practice and qualifying on Friday.

Saturday Morning Update --

• Continue to think Enfinger and Alfredo are under priced.  Like them both.
• Eckes locked and loaded since starting 13th.  Definitely a Top 10 truck with Top 5 upside.
  
• Really tough to pick a dominator.  Hill, Moffitt, Friesen, Chastain all strong options.  But will they split laps led, fastest laps, etc to minimize the impact?  I'm still leaning towards a focus on position difference upside.  Strong options there, too, with Enfinger, Sauter and Rhodes.
• Cobb, Dauzat, Reaume, Barnhill, Massey safest of those starting towards the back.