pocono trucks

Only 60 laps this week in the Truck Series race, so there's only a total of about 40 points for fastest laps and laps led. As a result, we're focused more on raw finishing position and positive position difference since those points will make up most of the scoring.

Ross Chastain dominated this race last year. Not only did he win, he led 54 of the 60 laps and ran 21 fastest laps -- by far the most in the field. Ross started on the front row, took the lead immediately and ran a lot of this race out front. In addition, two of the Top 5 starters wrecked in the very first turn and the pole sitter (Austin Hill) went to the garage on Lap 21. So there's some question whether Ross would have dominated to that degree if he started further back or if the field stayed at full strength. In any event, Ross was a clear target heading into the week. Now that he's starting 16th, there's really no good argument to fade him in a cash game setting. This should be a Top 5 truck and that alone would be plenty of value to pay off at a track like Pocono even if he doesn't lead laps or run many fastest laps.

Parker Kingerman starting 40th is another obvious target. This is a part time team so there are some reliability concerns, but those are far outweighed by the Top 20 upside here. I would expect ownership near 100% in cash games.

The group of Brandon Jones (10th), Matt Crafton (16th) and Stewart Friesen (20th) are all strong plays as well.

• The KBM trucks were real strong here last year (finished 3rd, 4th and 7th) and I'd expect Jones to have a really fast truck. The no practice scenario worries me a bit with him since it's his first truck race this season. Also, he's been dreadful at Pocono the last few years in the Xfinity Series -- finishing 38th, 24th and 36th the least three races here.
• Friesen is hard to evaluate. He started 3rd here last year but got loose and spun in the very first turn ending his race and giving him a dead last finish. He finished 4th and 12th the two prior years. They also switched manufacturers coming into this season and, overall, they're not showing the same speed and competitiveness as last season. This doesn't strike me as a Top 5 kind of truck, but something around 10th is doable.
• Crafton was quite vocal last year that the team as a whole didn't have a real good handle on Pocono. That said, he's finished 6th, 9th and 6th in the last three races here. Not at all likely to lead or run many fastest laps, but as safe a bet as there is for a Top 10.

I really like the group from $6,300 - $7,500. Going from the top down:

• Brennan Poole (29th) -- Got into a wreck at Charlotte but has been a 15th-20th place truck otherwise. He's even got some upside beyond that as he had five Top 10 finishes last season.
• Parker Klingerman (40th) -- Already covered above. Lock.
• Ty Majeski (19th) -- He's been running well this season and is part of the Niece Motorsports team which had the dominating win last year with Ross Chastain. In fact, Ty's crew chief is Phil Gould, who was Ross Chastain's crew chief in this race last year. It all sets up nicely for a Top 15 finish. The only hesitation is a lack of experience at Pocono. He has run a couple of ARCA races here -- including a win over Riley Herbst last year, but has no Truck or Xfinity experience here.
• Jordan Anderson (32nd) -- This team has struggled with failures and bad luck (i.e., flat tires, etc.) almost every week so far this season. But Jordan has a lot of experience and has been remarkably consistent at Pocono the last five seasons -- finishing 18th, 14th, 17th, 16th and 13th in those five races. Starting 32nd is by far his worst starting spot of the season so it helps give us a floor if the luck doesn't actually turn around this week. There's definitely risk here, but no one else in the sub-$7k range offers more positive position difference upside.
• Robby Lyons (33rd) -- The #97 is typically Jesse Little's truck, but Robby Lyons is there this weekend. Robby is solid and the #97 truck is normally solid as well. Probably prefer Anderson for the experience here. Robby has limited Trucks Series experience and I don't believe he's ever run at Pocono in Trucks or Xfinity.
• Tanner Gray (15th) -- We've talked about Gray almost every race now. This is a Top 10-12 truck so is really cheap at $6,300. All he really needs to do is not go backwards from his 15th starting spot and you're fine. There is added risk, of course, starting further forward.

As far as punt plays, I'm looking at Spencer Boyd. He should be able to move up 5 or so spots from his 31st starting spot and that's all you'd need for his $5k salary. I don't love this play and don't think you have to use him. It really depends on how you want to build the rest of your lineup. He fits more of a stars and scrubs approach whereas he wouldn't make sense in a more balanced approach.

Bets

• Chastain -105 Moffitt
• Chastain +600 to win