pocono xfinity

I'm going to break this one down into starting spot groups and talk about a few guys on my cash game radar in each group:

1st-10th:

• Noah Gragson (starting 1st) - As we saw in the Cup Series race, clean air is king. Gragson has been really strong of late leading laps, running fastest laps, etc. He finished 6th here last year although that was a bit of a fluke because he ran a lot of the race right around 10th (average running position of 11th). He took advantage of some late race mistakes and restarts -- which are typical in the Xfinity Series. That said, his current form is as good as anyone in the field, so I feel comfortable using him - especially at a track like Pocono.
• Chase Briscoe (3rd) - He didn't have Top 5 speed last year, but they did a good job with pit strategy and he had enough to finish 3rd. I don't have much doubt he'll be a Top 5 car in this field and he has a good a chance as anyone to lead laps and win. This team usually makes good decisions and has good pit stops. That kind of execution is key everywhere, but even more critical at a track like Pocono.
• Justin Allgaier (4th) - Had one of the Top 3 cars here last year along with Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick. Allgaier led 27 laps but finished 11th after spinning during a late race restart. His average running position on the day was 4th. It seemed like they made a really bad adjustment on the last pit stop and the car got way too loose near the end of the race. He is also very good - finishing 1st or 2nd the last two years - at Indianapolis, which is also a long, flat track reasonably comparable to Pocono. At the end of the day though, I don't fully trust this team to not screw up, so I prefer Gragson and Briscoe.
• I see arguments for Chastain and Cindric, but I'm not able to put them over any of these other guys I've mentioned.

18th-25th:

• Riley Herbst (24th) -- A Joe Gibbs car starting 24th for $7,700. Sign me up even though Herbst is driving. If he just takes care of the equipment, it should be a Top 12 ride, which easily exceeds our target 5x return.
  
• Brandon Brown (22nd) -- Brown finished 13th here last year and has finished in the Top 14 in six of the seven races since the layoff. At $7,300, he looks like another good bet for a 5x return.
• Joe Graf Jr (25th) -- Would like him starting further back, but he has thrown up Top 20 finishes in five of the seven races since the layoff. At $5,700, he's a solid salary saver option.
• Jeremy Clements (21st) -- 17th, 15th and 16th in the last three races at Pocono. He was also Top 17 at Indy four of the last five years. Would need to run in the Top 12 or so to hit value here. And he's been a bit unreliable this year.
• B.J. McLeod (23rd) -- BJ went on a run of Top 18 finishes when we first returned from the layoff, but he's now had four straight finishes outside the Top 20. The compressed schedule might be taking its toll on this JD Motorsports team which fields four cars that run full time in the Xfinity Series. That said, for $5,200, BJ doesn't have to do more then hold his starting spot and we're fine. It's about what you can pair with him since he has such a low salary.
  
• Brett Moffitt (18th) -- The salary is a little up there at $8,200. Brett would have to bring home a Top 10 finish to hit the 5x mark at that price. It's doable, but 12th-15th is more likely.
  

30th and back:

• Tommy Joe Martins (31st) -- Always has decent speed, although the car is not the most reliable.  But, he's hit 34 or more DK points in four of the last five races and we don't have many great options starting in the back this week.
• Timmy Hill (34th) -- In the #61, which is typically the best MBM car. If he doesn't run into issues, probably a 22nd-24th place car.
• Baley Currey (35th) -- This is Mike Harmon equipment, so you never know how reliable it will be. But whenever Currey is in the car, we've seen it try to run the full race. Starting 35th, he can really only go up because we know Stephen Leicht and Jeff Green will park early and likely finish last.