Pocono Xfinity

I put a few notes for Sunday's Cup Series race in the last post. But you shouldn't need much help making a cash game lineup there. So I'll spend more time on Xfinity.

Just 90 laps in this race, so somewhat limited laps led and fastest laps points. In choosing our top dollar plays, we probably want to have some built in position difference to go with laps led/fastest laps upside.

• Austin Cindric - Had an absolute rocket and clearly the best car in the field last year at Pocono. The race was very disjointed with a bunch of cautions and different pit strategies, so he never really got out front for a long time before getting caught up in a wreck that ended his day. Starting 13th, I love the position difference upside and dominator potential.
• Ty Gibbs - No Xfinity experience at Pocono, but he does have ARCA experience here and he's been amazing every time he's been in this #54 car this year. Starts 14th so, like Cindric, he has position difference upside and dominator potential.
• Justin Allgaier - Had a Top 3 car here last year, but also got damage in the wreck that took out Cindric. He starts 2nd, so could lead early and get some fastest laps out in clean air. But, he starts 2nd, so doesn't have any position difference cushion.
• Josh Berry - Transitions over to the #31 car, which is not as strong as the #8 car he had for Dale Jr's team earlier this year. This is probably more of a 12th-15th place car instead of the Top 10 car he's run most of the time this season. But, he's got a super safe floor from the 33rd starting spot and can reasonably hit +20 position difference.
• Sam Mayer - Sam takes over the #8 here and starts 20th. It is his first race in the Xfinity Series. Sam is extremely talented (won a Trucks race at Bristol last year), but has somewhat limited experience on big tracks like Pocono. He has done ARCA races here though. It's just a little concern with no practice and no Xfinity seat time.
• Myatt Snider - This is a pricing error by DK. There is no way the RCR #2 car should be priced down here with Austin Hill and Alex Labbe. This is a Top 10 car and Snider did really well in last year's Pocono race. There's always risk with Myatt being too aggressive, but it's too hard to pass up this price for this good a car.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt - Great price and great floor starting 38th. He should be able to get something close to +15 position difference from here.
• Colby Howard - Pretty similar to Earnhardt. Mid-20s is a reasonable expectation for his finishing position.
• Carson Ware - I've really liked this #17 car with J.J. Yeley driving -- and even Cody Ware from time to time. This week it's younger brother Carson. He was in this car last year at Pocono and finished 20th -- although that was inflated by the multiple wrecks that took out contending cars. 25th or so is a more realistic projection. But that could be enough at this really attractive salary.
• Joey Gase - Starts dead last but in the pretty slow #52 car. Joey is a pretty good driver, though, so maybe he can hold onto the lead lap and bring it home in the Top 30. 

Bets

• Cindric -105 Allmendinger
• Cindric -105 Allgaier
• Haley -110 Berry
• Myatt Snider +8000 to win -- throw away money only, but come on at +8000