I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
So happy to have full practice and qualifying done on Friday so we have time to prepare for Saturday's Xfinity Series race. Keep in mind we have numerous cars starting in the rear because teams went to back up cars after Auto Club last weekend. (This is a one-off Xfinity only rule where the teams are required to run the same car back-to-back weeks at Auto Club and Las Vegas.) They are: Cole Custer, Sheldon Creed, Josh Berry, Brandon Jones, Kyle Busch and Gray Gaulding. All will still be scored from their qualifying spot.
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Trucks Series articles tend to be shorter because I usually don't know the starting order before I post them. For this week, I'm going to post some notes about the drivers I'm most interested in heading into Friday based on their DK salary and expected performance. Obviously, Friday practice and qualifying can change a lot, so pay attention before lineups lock.
I also have a few head-to-head bets at the end. This is our first real Trucks Series race where the dramatic difference in Truck and team quality will be on display and I'm not sure the books have properly accounted for some off-season driver moves. DFS Plays
Bets
It looks like there's next to zero chance we get any on track activity on Saturday, so my current plan is to wait until Saturday night to write up my notes for the Cup Series race and Xfinity Series race - which would take place later Sunday after the Cup race.
Stay tuned. Saturday Night Update NASCAR screwed up the Xfinity slate for us, so let's talk about Sunday's Cup Series race. I focus on cash games and there's not a lot to say about this one. We've got obvious chalk starting from 28th on back. I expect 75% (or more) of people will start their cash lineups with Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Eric Jones. That leaves a 2 v 2 match-up to see who wins. And there aren't a lot of likely candidates for those last two spots either, with most people pairing Austin Dillion or Chase Briscoe with a cheaper driver. I'm not going to give out a lineup, but focus on car and team quality for that last spot. When in doubt, I want the best car and team I can get down in that salary range. My overall advice on weeks like this where cash games will have a ton of duplicate lineups is to pull back a bit on cash games. It's Week 2 of a long season. We've got plenty of time to make good money by making better choices then our competition. In weeks like this where most of the choices are so obvious, we don't have the same edge. If you want to go heavier somewhere, switch to some larger tournaments and have some fun fading chalk and getting different with the last few spots. Fade one or two of the expensive chalk guys and then have some fun. A few guys to consider -- Ryan Preece, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson and Ty Gibbs. Good luck everyone. Also, I'll normally have a more in depth discussion of the guys I like on a weekly basis but things are so obvious this week that it doesn't make sense to waste time with a lot of detail. Here we go. Scroll down a few entries for some bets that look good - hopefully you can still find some numbers that are reasonably close.
For DFS cash games, we're obviously looking at guys starting farther back who have some upside. To me there's no reason to use anyone starting higher then 25th. So let's break down 25th-40th:
Trucks went well with the Young's and RBR strategy. It's a similar play for me in the Xfinity race. For more on the overall strategy, see the Trucks post below. Here are the Xfinity teams I'll be focused on because they're likely to be slower, start near the back and not race aggressively early in the race:
Bets I don't really bet favorites at super speedways because so much unexpected chaos can happen. Here are some longer numbers that I think have value:
My notes for Trucks will be shorter since we won't have a starting order until shortly before the race. With superspeedways, we're always stacking guys starting far back in the field to avoid getting hit with negative points when wrecks inevitably happen. With Trucks, I'm more willing to take guys around 20th or so because the back markers here are usually very inexperienced drivers or decent drivers in very bad equipment. Here are a few targets and avoids--
Bets to win -- all are on top (or near top) tier teams and are just too long for the expected chaos
Reminder: I won't have anything for the Duels. Coverage will start with the Trucks Series posted late Thursday.
Bets (Round 3) - posted 2/16/23
Bets (Round 2) - posted 2/12/23 The Super Bowl was awesome. But it's over, so it's time for NASCAR. Here are two Top 10 bets for the Daytona 500 that look good to me --
Bets - posted 1/25/23 In the last seven races at Daytona, we've had four long shot winners in Justin Haley, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Austin Dillon. So, when odds were posted a few weeks ago, I looked for good/experienced drivers in good equipment at long odds. Here were the four best bets I saw --
The 2023 NASCAR season is just around the corner, so here's an update on my plans for this season:
It’s an interesting DFS slate for Sunday’s race. Obviously, the Toyotas have a ton of speed and are the favorites to lead laps, run fastest laps and finish very well. On the flip side, we have a number of guys who usually run near the front starting way back in the field after poor practice and qualifying sessions on Sunday. Let’s go through some of my favorite plays –
With same day practice and qualifying for the Xfinity Series, I won't be doing a DFS write up for that. I will have a full DFS article for the Cup Series race posted Saturday night.
On the Xfinity side, I'm seeing Sheldon Creed with some wildly high odds. I've seen +500 Top 5, +1000 Top 3 and +4000 to win. All are strong plays in my view. This is a top tier RCR car capable of winning races. And Creed pretty desperately needs to win to make the playoffs so we know they'll be going all out. |
AuthorMy name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games. Archives
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