richmond

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE
There was no tech inspection before qualifying, so it will all be done on Saturday.  That means you have to check what happens with inspection because if a car fails even one time, its qualifying time is disallowed and it will start from the back.  But it will also get an official starting spot in the back which is potentially big for position difference.  I don't expect mass failures here, but there will probably be a couple and those guys might become near must play guys.

Here's what I like as things sit now:

• Clint Bowyer starting 25th.  He has a Top 10 quality car and this is typically a good track for him, so I think he will be a cash game staple.
• Kevin Harvick from the pole.  I like Harvick to be one of the Dominators and lead a whole bunch of laps Saturday night.  His salary is way up there at $12,100, so we'll need to find some values to fit him in.
• Joey Logano starting 13th.  This is a Top 5 quality car and it's a good price at $8,700.  Pretty close to a cash game lock pending value that arises after inspection.
• Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson are very interesting because they start 19th and 22nd respectively.  But, both have really struggled though this weekend so I'm not sure what to really expect for them.  Do they have a set-up that will work at night but is bad during the daylight?  Or are they just lacking speed?  If I had to pick one of these guys, I'd go with Johnson.  In the last two races here, he's struggled early on qualifying 17th and 20th, but rallied for 6th and 8th finishing positions.  And he has a much lower salary at $7,900, which gives you the flexibility to upgrade another spot on your roster.
• William Byron, Ty Dillon, Ross Chastain and Corey Lajoie are some value/punt plays I have some interest in.

ORIGINAL POST
Race Two of the playoffs will be at Richmond on Saturday night.  First some general strategy pointers for the week then onto some preliminary driver targets.

Strategy

• We've got 400 laps this week, so 200 points for fastest laps and 100 points for laps led are available.
• In recent Richmond races, we've tended to have 2 Dominators per race that lead the most laps.  In April 2017, 2 Dominators led 164 and 110 laps.  In September 2017, 2 Dominators led 198 and 89 laps.  In Spring 2018, there were 3 Dominators up there with 121, 98 and 92 laps led.
• The pole position driver tends to be one of the laps led Dominators.  In the last five races here, the pole sitter has led 121, 89, 164, 189 and 63 laps.
• Fastest laps have tended to be more spread out and were very spread out in the Spring race this year.  In that race, there were 11 drivers with 15-40 fastest laps.  The most any driver had was 39.  So that's less than 20 points to the top driver in the fastest laps category.  In September 2017, we had one driver with 84 fastest laps and a group of six drivers with 15-41 fastest laps.  In April 2017, we had one driver with 100 fastest laps, another with 54 and then a group of six more with 10-30 fastest laps.  So those points tend to be pretty spread out.
• To have a winning lineup this week, I think we'll need at least one of the laps led Dominators (we'll try to get both) and several other guys who pick up some fastest laps.
• Another interesting thing I'm seeing this week is a pretty clear line between drivers who consistently do well here and those who don't.  For example, of the drivers who finished in the Top 15 in the Spring race, 11 of them also finished in the Top 15 in September 2017 race.  And 10 of them finished in the Top 15 in the April 2017 race.  And 8 drivers -- over half the list -- finished in the Top 15 in all three of those races.  Those are the guys we will need to be most focused on.

Driver Targets

• Denny Hamlin -- 6 straight finishes in the Top 6 with one win in that span.  He led 189 laps in the September 2016 race and 59 in April 2017.  $9,600 on DK is a very good price for that kind of performance.
• Joey Logano -- 9 straight Top 10 finishes with 2 wins in that span.  In the last three races here, he's finished 1st, 2nd and 4th.  In Spring, he started 3rd, led 92 laps (11 fastest laps) and finished 4th.  He's also coming into this race with three Top 4 finishes in the last four races this year.  He is crazily under priced at $8,700 DK.
• Kurt Busch -- Led 98 laps in the Spring race.  Has Top 10 finishes in 8 of the last 11 races here with 1 win in the time span.  Another relative bargain at $8,500 DK.
• Jimmie Johnson -- 8 straight Top 11 finishes, but he hasn't led a lap here since April 2016.  DK is begging you to roster him at $7,900.
• Daniel Suarez -- Has finished 12th, 7th and 10th with a collective +24 position difference in three Cup Series races at Richmond.  Only $7,500 DK.
• William Byron -- Started 9th and finished 12th in his only Cup Series race here in the Spring.  Only $6,800 DK.
• Clint Bowyer at $9,100 DK, Eric Jones at $9,300 DK and Aric Almirola at $8,300 DK also offer the potential for great value depending on starting spot.  None of them have a great record here, but each is talented and with a top team.
• Kyle Busch -- He won the Spring race carving through the field from the 32nd starting spot.  He has Top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races here, but he has not been a laps led Dominator since leading 235 laps in April 2011.  He would need to really improve on the laps led to pay off his $11,800 DK price tag.
• Kevin Harvick -- Much the same could be said for Harvick.  He's finished 5th in 4 of the last 5 races here.  But, he too has not been a laps led Dominator since leading 202 laps in September 2011.  Will need to reverse that trend to pay off his top shelf $12,200 DK salary.
• Martin Truex -- He has led the most laps in the last two Richmond races with 121 led in the Spring and 198 led last Fall.  But, he's finished 14th and 20th in those two races.  In Fall 2016, he led 193 laps and finished 3rd.  At $11,000 DK, he's the most affordable of the Big Three and the most likely to pay off his salary based on recent Dominator performance.
• Corey LaJoie, Matt DiBenedetto and Ross Chastain are the punt plays I'm most interested in heading into the weekend.