richmond cup

This strikes me as a somewhat tricky slate to figure out which way to go.  The biggest decision from the get go is whether or not to use Kyle Busch.  He won both Richmond races last year and is on a tear in all three national series.  That said, his salary is all the way up to $13K on Draft Kings.  And, he really didn't dominate either of the races here last year -- although that's largely because he started pretty far back both times.  In Spring, he started 32nd and led 32 laps.  In Fall, he started from the rear for unapproved adjustments and climbed through the field to lead 92 laps in the Fall.  So, while he did not lead even one-quarter of the 400 laps run in either race, his wins were both very impressive.  He also was on top of the 10 lap average chart during Friday's lone practice.  With all this background, I'm leaning towards using Kyle because he just seems like a man on a mission right now, but that's not set in stone.

• Other top salary guys to consider -- Kevin Harvick starts from pole.  He's finished in the Top 5 here in 5 of the last 6 races.  Despite starting from the pole in two of those races, though, he didn't really dominate any of them.  He started from pole in the Fall, finished 2nd, led 40 laps and had 34 fastest laps.  That's a good, but not great, day considering the sheer number of laps run in a race here.  Harvick also started from pole in Spring 2016.  That time he finished 5th and led 63 laps.  I'll also give some consideration to Ryan Blaney.  He starts 29th, so offers elite position difference upside.  And, he's finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races this season.  However, he's never been very good at Richmond.  In the last 6 races here, his best finish is 18th and he hasn't led a single lap in any of those races.  At his salary, in a race with so many laps being run, I think you need someone with laps led and fastest lap dominator potential, not a guy with +20 position difference potential.  That said, he's probably as safe a play as there is in the field this week.
• I do like several guys in the $8,500-$10,000 tier.  Like last week, I think Martin Truex is under priced at under $10K on Draft Kings.  Although he's never won at a short track, he has led 120 or more laps in 4 of the last 5 races at Richmond.  That's by far the most laps led here over that time period.  In addition, he had a really fast car last week and was climbing through the field until having to pit under green for a tire issue.  I think this team is starting to come around and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him lead 100 or so laps again on Saturday night.  I also like Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer.  Both are top tier short track drivers and have good histories here.  Hamlin in particular has a win and 4 Top 5 finishes in the last 5 races here.
• Aric Almirola at $7,700 is also someone to consider.  He finished 5th here in the Fall last season and has always run solid here -- even during his time at Richard Petty Motorsports.  Prior to getting wrecked out at Bristol, Almirola had 6 straight finishes in the Top 9, so this team is performing at a high level.  
• On the salary saver end of things, Ryan Newman (starting 31st, $6,900 DK) and Ty Dillon (starting 30th, $6,100 DK) will likely be highly owned.  Both offer decent upside.  Ty is running as well as he ever has of late with 3 Top 15 finishes in the last 5 races.  He's never been great here, but still offers decent value if he can simply finish in the 20th-25th range.  Newman is also running well right now, having finished 11th and 9th the last two weeks.  He's usually solid at this type of flatter track and he actually had two Top 10 finishes at Richmond just two seasons ago in 2017.  Starting 31st, he offers nothing but upside at a reasonable salary.  I really don't like anyone cheaper than this, but you may have to grab someone like Cassill or McDowell to make the salaries work.