richmond final update

Qualifying threw a bit of a curve ball at us with Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski starting way back in the field.  Here is how I'm approaching things for the Saturday night race in cash games:

• Start with either Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski.  Both should gain 20+ positions and even have the potential to lead laps and win by the time all is said and done.  I lean towards Busch because I think it's more likely he could get to the front, but wouldn't argue with anyone who wants to save the $1,100 salary and go with BK.
• Pick a dominator from the group of Truex, Logano, Larson and Hamlin.  Here, I'm leaning Truex because of how he's performed in the last two night races at Richmond.  In both races (Sept 2016 and Sept 2017), Truex led 190+ laps and dominated large portions of the race.  This time he has the added benefit of starting from the pole and having the best pit selection to help on pit stops.  As documented below, Logano has 8 straight Top 10 finishes at Richmond and Hamlin has 5 straight.  But neither of them has dominated a night race like Truex did the last two.  Larson won here last September, but led only 53 laps.  That is the most laps he's ever led at a Richmond race.
• Pick a few mid-level points hogs who are safe and have position difference upside.  The best candidates are Johnson, Almirola, Bowyer, A. Dillon, Suarez and Menard.  My favorites from this group are Almirola, Menard and Suarez.  Almirola had two Top 10 finishes at Richmond from a 20+ starting position when he was with RPM.  He is running well this year with SHR and he was third on the 20 lap chart in final practice.  I think we can safety project a finish between 10th-15th with 10 or more PD points.  For Menard, he is now affiliated with Team Penske, which has a great record at Richmond.  And he was 6th on the 20 lap chart in final practice.  For Suarez, he finished 12th and 7th last year at Richmond.  His team at JGR has a great Richmond track record and he rolls off 26th, giving him great PD upside.  I like Bowyer -- and he showed his short track ability at Martinsville -- but I think you get a similar profile from Menard for $1,300 less salary.  Dillon was 7th on the 20 lap chart in final practice, but he has only one finish better than 20th at Richmond in his Cup career.  Johnson is a wild card.  I truly don't know what to expect from him in any given week.     
• Pick a salary saver.  Good targets are Kasey Kahne and Landon Cassill.  I usually avoid Kahne, but he does have a decent history at Richmond -- albeit with better teams.  But he was 4th on the 20 lap chart in final practice, so he is showing some speed this weekend.  Cassill is more of a crap shoot, but he starts 36th and has outperformed the last two weeks, finishing 21st and 20th for 30+ FanDuel points.  His extremely low salary gives you room to spend elsewhere.  If you have the salary left, go with Kahne.  If you're short, go with Cassill.

All the above are GPP targets for me as well.  If you're looking for guys likely to be lower owned, I would recommend Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch and Eric Jones.

In the Nascar.com Fantasy Live game, I'm lining up Truex, Logano, Larson, Harvick and Hamlin with Eric Jones in the garage.  Go with a JGR or Penske car or affiliate to win the stages and race.