richmond trucks

We've got the Richmond Truck Series race on Thursday night. Like Darlington, the Trucks have not raced at Richmond for a long time, so we don't have any relevant track history. I'm looking most at Gateway from a few weeks ago as well as the short, flat tracks (Gateway, Phoenix, Iowa and Martinsville) from last year.

• Todd Gilliland was by far the best truck at Gateway. He led 76 laps and ran 35 fastest laps. Sheldon Creed got into him and knocked him into the wall leading to a bad finish. Gateway is the only other short, flat track the Trucks have run this year and Goodyear is bringing the same tire to Richmond. So, I'd expect Gilliland to be pretty good again.
• Creed won at Gateway and really stood out for how well he was able to pass compared to the rest of the field. He came through the field from 17th to lead 15 laps and run 10 fastest laps. He was a Top 3 truck throughout that race.
• Zane Smith started Gateway from the pole and led early, but fell back throughout the race and finished 7th. Very few of these guys have Richmond experience, but Smith ran both Xfinity races here last year for JR Motorsports and finished 6th and 8th in those races. I think that could give him a leg up on the field and gives some comfort that he's very likely to finish better than his 9th starting spot.
• Christian Eckes was really good at Gateway as well, but the truck broke and he finished 32nd. I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead early in this race. (I'd say Gilliland, Creed and Eckes were the best trucks at Gateway.)
• I don't view short, flat tracks as Austin Hill's strength, but he starts out front and these trucks always run best in clean air. I think some of these other guys are better options though because I don't see Hill leading a ton of laps or winning the race.
• Stewart Friesen has been running much better lately, with four consecutive Top 10 finishes. He's best at the short, flat tracks. He finished 5th at Gateway this year. Last year, he won at Phoenix, finished 3rd at Gateway, 5th at Iowa, and 5th and 6th in the two Martinsville races.
• Brett Moffitt is never a bad choice for under $10k. He is a contender to dominate and lead any Truck race. He finished 2nd at Gateway a few weeks ago and was running in the Top 5 almost the entire race. I'm leaning toward guys like Creed, Friesen and Eckes this week, but they all carry more risk then a steady, Top 5 guy like Moffitt.
• Sam Meyer and Carson Hocevar are the best position difference plays. Meyer was really strong at Gateway and has a lot of short, flat track experience. Hocevar ran 15th at Gateway and that's a reasonable expectation here. I think he's a little safer than a guy like Trevor Bayne.
  • David Ragan is probably too expensive to make it work. He might be a 10th place truck, so that would get you 45 DK points. I don't see him leading laps or running fastest laps, so that will make it a struggle to hit a 5x return on his $10+k salary.
  • I'm completely out on Sauter. Problems every single week.