road america xfinity

Will have write ups for both the Xfinity race on Saturday and the Trucks race on Sunday. I love the Road America track but, in all honesty, stock cars look very out of place there. Weather looks good in the mid-70s and mostly sunny. I had some thoughts heading into practice Friday and most of them were solidified and confirmed by what went down at practice. Here's where I'm at heading into qualifying and the race on Saturday:

• I'm pretty concerned that DK pricing is too soft this week. I fear were going to have a lot of similar lineups in cash games that could lead to huge ties and split payouts. At the very least, the margin between winning and losing will be very slim and more prone to good or bad luck for one guy in your lineup. Unless something in qualifying shakes things up, I'm probably playing a lighter load on Saturday.
• Only 45 laps with two cautions at the stage breaks built in. So there are very few extra points out there for fastest laps and laps led. There are also limited on track passing opportunities, so difficult to score many positive position difference points unless the car really botches qualifying and has significantly more speed then the other cars starting around it.  The most emphasis is on finishing position and avoiding any negative position difference. 
• With that background, here's the general approach I suspect most people will take:
  • First, I think most will take (1) Austin Cindric because he won the first two road course races this year and looked fast again in practice Friday and (2) AJ Allmendinger because he's the most notable road course guy and was also pretty fast in practice.
  • Second, I think most people will grab Matt DiBenedetto because he's way too cheap, is in a great car and everyone knows the name from his recent Cup Series success.  He's also a strong road course guy and has very good results at those tracks with under funded teams in the Cup Series.
  • Third, we've got a handful of good options at the lower end of the salary range to make the upper end salaries work.  I think people will gravitate to 2-3 cheap plays.
• I want to dig in on a few of the guys I expect to be heavily owned:
  • Cindric -- Obviously won the first two road course races this season and he's always done very well at the road courses.  He looked fine in practice Friday and got through them incident free.  Was 3rd quickest in first practice and 7th quickest in final practice.
  • Allmendinger --  He said this car was the best he's had this year at a road course, so that's a very good sign for him.  I think he's the best road course racer in the field, so if his car is close, his skill may take him the rest of the way.  In final practice he was 3rd in single lap time and 1st in 5-lap average.  Tire fall off is actually huge at Road America and I think AJ is in the best position to manage the tires and maintain speed throughout a run.  The only bit of concern here is that he had some issue in the right front just as final practice was ending.  Chances are they get it fixed and are fine for the race on Saturday, but it's obviously not ideal to have a problem just as practice is ending since there's no opportunity to see if you got it fixed correctly for the race.
  • DiBenedetto -- He's in the #18 Joe Gibbs car this weekend.  It's obviously top notch equipment and Matt has shown a lot of success on road courses even in secondary equipment.  In the two Cup road course races this year, Matt's finished 4th and 6th.  Last year in the #32 car -- which is severely underfunded -- Matt finished in the Top 18 (13th and 17th) in two of the three Cup series road course races.  So he obviously has road course skills and will be in a top notch ride for the first time.  He's way too cheap at $8,400.  In final practice he was 2nd in single lap time and 2nd in 5-lap average.
  • I've got to say that Christopher Bell in the 20 looked great on Friday.  He had the fastest speed in both practices.  Reddick said the 20 just drove off away from him in first practice.  And in the second practice, Bell came out on track slightly ahead of Cindric and he drove away from Cindric as well.  Bell finished 3rd and 2nd in the prior road course races this season so he's certainly a strong contender for the win on Saturday.
  • Also have to at least mention Custer.  He hasn't led laps or gotten many fastest laps, but he's finished in the Top 8 at the last seven road course races.  He's certainly in play at a sub-$10k salary.
    
• On the salary saver side, here are the cheap options at $5,500 and below that I expect people to gravitate towards:
  • Ryan Ellis -- He will be in the #78 BJ McLeod car which always attempts to run the full race.  Ellis ran this race last year in the #78 and started 28th and finished 17th.  An 18th-20th place finish is a reasonable expectation again.  And this car tends to race better then it qualifies which is just what we want.  He did not run in first practice but was 16th in second practice.
  • Tommy Joe Martins -- He's in the #66 MBM car that looks to be sponsored this week.  He ran 18th at Mid Ohio and was running about 20th at The Glen before a mechanical issue knocked him out and down to the 28th finishing position.  It looks like this team will try to run a full race but, as we say almost weekly with the MBM group, a mechanical failure is about a 50/50 proposition.  And these cars sometimes do show some speed and qualify too well to justify the risk in cash games.  He was 20th in first practice and 18th in final practice.  He posted on Twitter Friday night that they made an adjustment he really liked between first and second practice Friday and that he thinks the team has a "very real shot" at a Top 10 finish.
  • Dexter Bean -- In the #90 DGM car.  He ran this car at Road America two years ago in 2017 when he started 35th and finished 26th.  He's not had a lot of success and has very limited Xfinity experience so I wouldn't project anything more then a 28th-30th place finish.  But it's a decent team that we know will try to run the full race.  So if he qualifies in the back, you don't need much for the $4,700 price tag.  I was worried to see him off track twice in first practice, but it was all in run off areas so no damage to the car.  He was 24th in first practice and 26th in final practice which seems like a reasonable vicinity for him to finish the race on Saturday.     
  • Vinnie Miller -- He won't have good speed, but he's going to turn laps and finish the race.  He actually didn't finish at The Glen, but that's because he crashed in qualifying and they didn't have a backup.  He did turn laps at Mid Ohio and finished 25th -- up from the 35th starting spot for 29 DK points.   I would use 28th-30th as a baseline for most likely finishing position.  I wrote most of this article Thursday and had Miller in it.  He was several seconds off the pace in final practice, so would only consider him if he started in the last 4-5 starting spots.
  • Ryan Vargas -- In the #4 car for JD Motorsports.  This was the Ross Chastain team and we know it tries to run the full race every week.  Vargas ran once earlier this year in the #15 JDM car and finished 17 at Iowa.  He has limited road course experience, but is an option at only $5,100 as long as he qualifies poorly.  Was also in my Thursday draft.  Was 7 seconds off the pace in 29th place in first practice, so same approach as Vinnie Miller.
  • Would not touch Pardus (one off with no experience), Karth (65+ year old Wisconsin local with no experience), Finchum (likely start and park) or Yeley (likely start and park) in cash games -- or any format at all.
  • Still on the cheaper side, I also like Josh Bilicki.  He's sponsored this week again and has been solid at the road courses this year.  He was well inside the Top 20 late at The Glen until he got collected in someone else's wreck and finished 26th.  He finished 17th at Mid Ohio.  He was 16th in first practice and 24th in final practice, so another finish just inside the Top 20 is certainly a reasonable projection.
• Finally a few notes from Friday's practices.  Final practice was pretty wild with numerous guys finding big trouble:
  • Not much to note in first practice.  The 9 (Gragson) and 90 (Bean) were both off track several times and struggled with car control.
  • Final practice was crazy with numerous problems:
    • 19 (Jones) -- Big crash with heavy damage.  Back up car starting at the rear of the field no matter where he officially qualifies.
    • 51 (Clements) -- Left rear truck arm mount broke.  This is an issue the team should be able to fix and be ready to race on Saturday, but keep an eye on it.
    • 86 (Brown) -- Big spin and loss of control into Canada Corner.  Limited car damage but Brown did not sound like a confident driver when interviewed.
    • 21 (Grala) -- Engine was missing or acting like the rev limiter was being incorrectly triggered.  Team seemed to be investigating a fuel pick up issue when practice ended.  Again, worrisome to have a major issue like this with no practice time to see if it got fixed properly.
    • 74 (Hammann) -- Not great car control and something fell apart and out of the car when he ran over the curbing on track.  Looked like a rear spring.  Obviously stuff like that shouldn't be falling out simply because he went over the curbing that everyone uses to help turn the car in the corners.
    • 10 (Allmendinger) -- Right front issue as noted above.  A cause for at least some concern.
    • 36 (Williams) -- Seemed to run out of gas late in practice. Commentators guessed they were testing the limits of their fuel mileage.