ROVAL

Should be a crazy weekend and very difficult to predict with no track history whatsoever.  109 laps, so just over 25 laps led points and 50 fastest lap points are out there.  Looking at the most recent Sonoma and Watkins Glen road course races, we tend to see two or three drivers getting the bulk of those extra points.  We've tended to see one guy lead about 1/3-1/2 of the race with one or two other guys leading about 1/4 of the race and then a few more leading a handful of laps.  There tends to be a similar distribution of fastest laps.  So, we'd like to get some of those extra points in our lineup, but position difference and a solid finishing position are going to be most critical this weekend.

Here are some guys I am focusing on heading into the weekend:

• Kyle Busch $11,400 DK -- Top 7 finish in the last 6 road course races with laps led in 5 of those 6 races.  Probably the most consistent road course racer in the Series.
• Martin Truex $11,100 DK -- 1st, 1st and 2nd in the last three road course races with 90 total laps led in those races.  He is the closest we've seen to a repeat Dominator at recent road course races.
• Chase Elliott $10,500 DK -- Won the last road course race at Watkins Glen while leading 52 laps.  Has Top 13 finishes in his last 5 road course races.  But he's awfully pricey.
• Kurt Busch $9,000 DK -- Top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 6 road course races with an 11th place finish in the one other road course race.  He's finished 7th, 6th, 6th and 9th at the last four road course races with a total +66 position difference in those four races.
• Clint Bowyer $9,500 DK -- In his last four road course races since joining SHR, he's finished 2nd, 5th, 3rd and 11th -- although he has no laps led in those races.  He's a bit pricey, but is likely to deliver a Top 10 finish.
• Daniel Suarez $8,100 DK -- He's been strong in his 4 road course races since joining the Cup Series.  He has finished of 16th, 3rd, 15th and 4th.
• Eric Jones $7,400 DK -- I don't know why he's priced so low.  He's with a powerhouse team and has finished 10th, 7th and 5th in the last three road course races.
• Alex Bowman $7,100 DK -- Finished 9th and 14th with +16 position difference in the two road course races this year.  Another potential value play from a rock solid team.
• Chris Buescher $6,700 -- AJ Allmendinger gets all the acclaim as a road course guy, but his teammate Buescher has outperformed him in the last two seasons.  Buescher has finished 19th, 11th, 12th and 20th in the last four road course races.  He's potentially a strong value option this week.
• Michael McDowell $6,100 DK -- Another potential value option.  McDowell has finished in the Top 21 at the last five road course races.  His finishes are 17th, 14th, 12th, 21st and 18th.  The only downside is that he tends to qualify pretty well too, so his position difference upside tends to be limited.

More to follow as we move closer to race day.