Roval Cup Series

I don't know if this will end up being a very popular idea, but my approach for Sunday's race is pretty cut and dried for me.  I'm again expecting a lot of chaos and crazy stuff.  We've seen it in practice throughout the weekend and we saw it last year when this race had 8 cautions -- 6 real cautions (1 debris and 5 incidents) plus the two stage breaks.  The cautions and restarts breed more of the same.  And it allows for differing strategies and guys being able to move up or down the running order based on luck and good timing.  Given all this, I'm playing a very conservative lineup with a couple cheap punts and a solid core of good road course guys starting mid pack.  Here's who I'm focused on:

• The punts are pretty obvious I think:
  • Klingerman starting dead last at a near minimum salary seems like a must play.  He's finished between 23rd and 26th in three of the four road course races he's done over the past two seasons and that's what we'd be looking for here.  Anything in the 20s will work really well.
  • Tifft starting 36th works as well at only $5,700.  Again we'd be looking for any kind of finish in the 20s.  He's delivered 28th and 24th place finishes in the two road course races earlier this year, so he's capable of getting what we need.
  • One note of caution -- both of these guys wrecked in practice, which is obviously not ideal.  Tifft in particular didn't even get to run in final practice because the team was still working to get the car race ready.  I'm ok with that as long as we don't hear anything in the morning that causes some concern about their ability to complete the race because the car couldn't be fully repaired.  I'm also ok with it because I don't like any of the other sub-$7k options at all.  The only possible play is David Ragan starting 27th.  He's finished between 16th-22nd in the last three road course races and that would work well here for a $5,600 salary.  But there's also a greater downside if he wrecks or falls back at all.  I lean Tifft for cash games because of a higher floor.  Fire up Ragan over Tifft in a tournament though or if you think you need a more aggressive cash lineup.
• Now for the cluster in the middle I'm looking at:
  • Hamlin (28th) -- Must start for me.  Top 5 finishes at both road course races so far this year.  In the last three years (7 races), he has four Top 5 finishes at the road courses and has not finished worse then 13th.  11th quick in final practice.  Very high floor and top score upside.
  • Kurt Busch (23rd) -- Love this play as well.  In the last three years (7 races), he has six Top 10 finishes at the road courses and also has not finished worse then 13th.  9th quick in final practice.  
  • Chase Elliott (19th) -- Five Top 8 finishes in the last seven road course races.  He was also the fastest car in final practice and he ran the most laps of anyone in the practice.  Was in the Top 8 in all three practice sessions this weekend.
  • Eric Jones (15th) -- Top 10 finish in five of the last six road course races.  He's finished 8th and 4th in the two road course races this season.
  • Kyle Busch (17th) -- Probably the 2nd most talented road course guy in the series behind Truex.  Four Top 5 finishes in the last seven road course races.  He got caught up in the crazy restart wreck last year at the Roval and finished 32nd.  Was not very high on the speed charts in any practice this weekend, but I'm not overly worried about that.  Might be too expensive to make everything fit together though.  (His profile this week is really close to Elliott and Jones but you can get Elliott for $1k less and Jones for almost $2k left.  Pay up for KB if you like the rest of your lineup with him in there or save if you want to beef up another spot on your roster.)
  • Matt DiBenedetto (18th) -- Started 19th and finished 4th at Sonoma and started 20th and finished 6th at Watkins Glen earlier this year.  I don't think he'll repeat at quite that level, but he's been hovering around the Top 10 for practice speeds and a 8th-10th place finish is an aggressive, but reasonable, projection.
• And now a guy with his own category -- Martin Truex (8th).  He'll start from the rear due to an engine change.  As I mentioned before, he's the best road course racer in the series.  Three wins and two 2nd place finishes in the last six road course races.  And he would have won this race last year if not for getting run over by Jimmie Johnson.  So let that sink in -- but for being taken out by Johnson here last year, he would have four wins and two 2nd place finishes in the last six road course races.  He's the best and it's not really close.  I don't think he's a cash game play because there's too much risk starting from the rear and it's unlikely he can lead many laps even if he were to win at the end.  But I'd definitely fire him up in tournaments.  I'd also throw down a +400 (last number I saw) bet for him to win the race if it's legal and appropriate for you to do so.