sonoma

Final Update: Still liking a lot of things talked about below.
Draft Kings:

• ​Still loving Harvick, Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer. Can now add Hamlin to that list with his starting spot. I’m thinking Kurt Busch, Bowyer and Hamlin are cash game locks. I like Harvick there too, but could also see saving a bit with Truex — who I think will lead some laps.
  
• On the cheaper end, I like McDowell, Buescher, Ragan and Whitt. You can mix/match two of them with the four favorites (or the Truex pivot) from above.
• In tourneys, probably need to fade one or two of the chalk guys (Kurt, Bowyer and Hamlin). Some alternatives I like are Blaney, Johnson, Suarez and Allmendinger.

On FanDuel:

• Harvick is real expensive and tough to use in cash.
• Kurt Busch, Bowyer and Hamlin all still good selections. Can pair them with a salary saver and another strong driver like Logano, Johnson, etc.
• Same concept in tourneys to fade at least one chalk guy. Can use Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, Johnson, Blaney, Suarez as alternatives.

Post Practice Update: Not a whole lot has changed since my initial post. Harvick, Kurt Busch and Bowyer look real strong — as expected. I also like what I see so far from Hamlin, Blaney and McMurray. A lot will come down to qualifying and starting spot.

Also, I looked back at the last two races and very few guys exceed 10 points combined for fastest laps and laps led on DK. The best guys are getting in the low teens in bonus points there. So, again, the effect there is much reduced given the fewer number of laps and variables that go into road racing. Very unlikely to see any kind of Dominator.


Initial Post: Here's an initial target list for next weekend's June 24 race at Sonoma. I'll be traveling again next week, so don't know how much updating I'll be able to do. At a minimum, I'll try to post something Saturday night after qualifying.

As background, only 110 laps at Sonoma, so just over 25 points total for laps led and 50 points total for fastest laps. We typically see multiple leaders here with teams using different pit strategies, etc. (No driver has led more than 45 laps in any of the last four races, so it's unlikely we see a real Dominator.) So, it places a bigger emphasis on position difference and raw finishing position for this race. Depending on where guys start, it may make sense to fade the Big Three and go with a full roster of solid guys with good teams from top to bottom.

With that in mind, here's who I will be most focused on going into the race weekend:

• Clint Bowyer -- Coming off a win at Michigan and has a great Sonoma record. Finished 2nd there last year. Ignore 2016 when he was in crap equipment with H Scott Motorsports, and he has finished Top 10 in nine of eleven Sonoma races and Top 5 in seven of those eleven races.
• Kurt Busch -- 2nd, 10th and 7th in the last three Sonoma races. Has finished Top 10 in six of the last seven races (finished 12th in the other). Also finished Top 5 in four of the last seven.
• Denny Hamlin -- Not generally known as a road course guy, but he finished 2nd and led 33 laps two years ago and then finished 4th and led 11 laps last year. He seems to have figured it out.
• Ryan Newman -- This guy is as steady as they come at Sonoma. He has finished in the Top 20 in fifteen of his last sixteen Sonoma races. In the last five years, he has finished between 8th-15th every time. A real solid target -- especially if he starts from 20th or so on back.
• Jimmie Johnson -- He has finished 13th in the last two Sonoma races. Before that, he had seven straight Top 10 finishes. Will all depend on salary and starting spot.
• Joey Logano -- 5th, 3rd and 12th in the last three Sonoma races. Has finished in the Top 16 for seven years in a row and has four Top 10 finishes in those last seven races.
• Kevin Harvick -- 4th, 6th and 1st in the last three Sonoma races. Salary might be too high to roster him though -- unless he is starting from further back in the field.
• Kyle Busch -- 1st, 7th and 5th in last three at Sonoma. A great choice to finish in the Top 10, but the salary is the concern.
• Truex is a possibility, but he's been very up and down in this race. His last eight finishes here are 37th, 5th, 42nd, 15th, 1st, 22nd, 8th and 42nd. Unless you believe in a bad one year, good the next pattern, I'm going to be very hesitant to pay his salary with an up and down history like this. As with Harvick and Kyle B, I'm thinking I'll avoid Truex unless he starts pretty far back.
• A few cheaper targets if you need to fill out a roster are Paul Menard and Kasey Kahne. Menard has been solid and has seven straight Top 20 finishes at Sonoma. Kahne was 24th last year, but had finished in the Top 10 in the four prior Sonoma races -- albeit with Hendrick Motorsports.
• AJ Allmendinger is a great road course guy, but he's been terrible lately at Sonoma. He's finished 35th or worse in three of the last four races. He always seems to have a problem in this race. He qualifies well and leads laps early, but craps out as the race moves along. I don't know if he is pushing too hard and killing his equipment or what. Unless he qualifies poorly, I'm likely to stay away.