sonoma cup

Here are my notes for Sunday's Cup race. As usual, I'm focused on a cash game lineup and approach. I think we've got a pretty chalky slate on our hands with a number of obvious, popular plays. I'll cover those and then talk about a few pivots if you want to be a little different.

I think a lot of lineups are going to start with the trio of Martin Truex, Kurt Busch and Chase Briscoe.

• Truex starts 19th, so offers a good floor and upside. He has won (and dominated) the last two Sonoma races, although they had either a different layout (no carousel in 2018) or a different package (high downforce package in 2019). Truex has a really strong road course history and does make a lot of sense for cash games. From what I see, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have all surpassed Truex as the top road course drivers. I do think Truex will finish in the Top 10, but I don't expect him to lead a lot of laps or dominate unless he gets lucky with a pit strategy and timely caution or something like that.
• Kurt also has a really strong history at Sonoma, finishing 10th, 7th, 6th and 13th in the last four races here. He was 4th at the Daytona road course earlier this year and was running fine at COTA before hydroplaning off track in the heavy rain. From 30th, we'd certainly be hoping for +15 or more position difference.
• Chase Briscoe won the ARCA race at Sonoma Saturday. He ran that race to get track experience since the lower NASCAR series do not visit Sonoma. Briscoe had a strong road course background in the Xfinity Series and ran really well at COTA a few weeks ago, finishing 6th. For the price, it's really hard to pass him up starting 25th.

Other popular plays

• Ross Chastain -- His strong performance at COTA was really surprising to me since he's never had great road course performances even in a strong Xfinity car for Kaulig. Starting 29th for only $7,700, we really don't need a repeat to make it work. As long as he can get you about +10 position difference, it should work out. For the salary, he's a really strong cash game option, I'd just caution people not to look at the COTA result and assume there's going to be another Top 10 run here.
• Ryan Preece -- Was highly owned and delivered at COTA with a run from 36th to 15th. He's now finished in the Top 15 in three straight road courses -- including 9th and 15th place finishes this season. Starting 27th for $6,800, he's another strong option.
• Kyle Larson/Chase Elliott -- Love them both here and think one of them is the most likely winner. But I'm not sure they are must plays for DFS. First, we have limited laps this race (90 laps) so much less chance for fastest laps and laps led points. Second, with pit strategy options, we tend to see multiple leaders at Sonoma and not single dominator races. Third, if you pay up here, you better be right.

Other options

• Joey Logano -- Five straight Top 10 finishes at road courses. including 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in the last three races. He starts 13th, so offers a good +8-10 position difference upside.
• Michael McDowell -- Pretty expensive considering a somewhat limited upside starting 21st. But he has finished in the Top 12 in four of the last five road course races -- including 8th and 7th this season.
• Christopher Bell -- Starts 20th, so offers a good +10 or more position difference upside. He won at the Daytona road course earlier this year, but wrecked early at COTA in one of the "can't see" wrecks on the long back straightaway. Expensive though.

Bets

• Larson +145 Elliott
• Logano Top 5 +275