talladega trucks and xfinity

We have our last superspeedway races this weekend. These races tend to have several large wrecks that take out chunks of the field. We usually see 10+ cars/trucks not finish the race and it's really hard to predict which those will be. So, the safest (and most common) approach for cash games is to play guys starting far back in the field. Let's look at each series to figure out where our driver pool should come from:

Trucks
I'm looking mostly from 24th on back for this one. It is a cutoff race and two drivers will be eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday. We'll probably see some portions of calm, single file racing, but the stage endings and race ending will probably get wild. As a result, I'm guessing we see at least 2-3 major incidents. One thing I'm struggling with is that some of the guys starting in the way, way back have some serious reliability issues. Guys like Bryan Dauzat, Robby Lyons, Norm Benning and Dawsom Cram are all wild cards. They are small teams who probably haven't been able to afford much work on the trucks, so there are serious reliability concerns.

• Codie Rohrbaugh and Robby Lyons are my top two plays. Rohrbaugh finished 3rd at Daytona this February and has run enough races this year to give me some confidence the truck will not fail on its own. Lyons has some decent superspeedway experience and the #97 team tends not to embarrass itself even though it is a very part time team that has not run this truck in a couple of months. They both offers great floors and ceilings starting 34th and 38th, respectively.
• Dauzat, Benning, Cram, Viens, Ciccarelli, Cobb and Nemechek are all kind of in the same boat. All have very questionable equipment and I don't have a lot of confidence the trucks will stay in one piece. Most are also very questionable drivers. If all goes perfect, though, they should finish in the Top 25 in front of everyone who wrecks out. Maybe one of them hits the jackpot and spikes a Top 15 finish, but good luck predicting which one it would be.
• Jordan Anderson and Spencer Boyd have avoided wrecks and finished well in most recent plate track races.
• The Reaume trucks (Josh Reaume and Jason White) are a tough read for me. One of them seems to park in recent weeks, but we usually don't see guys park at the plate tracks. I like them both if they do try to run the whole thing. They will ride safely in back until wrecks thin out the field. White used that approach and finished 10th at Daytona this year.
• Trevor Bayne and Kaz Grala I like. Decent drivers in decent equipment. But, I think they'll try to race as opposed to sitting back safely and letting others wreck out in front of them. So it's not really an ideal profile for cash games because they're more likely to get caught in a wreck doing it that way. But both have Top 10 upside.
• Korbin Forrister has finished in the Top 18 in his last four plate track races and should have reliable equipment from the #17 DGR team. He doesn't have a lot of seat time this year, so I'm guessing he is conservative until Stage 3 -- which is what we want.

Xfinity

• Kaulig crushes plate tracks. Don't be stupid -- use A.J. Allmendinger. Haley and Chastain good for tournaments, but too risky for cash.
• Vinnie Miller fits the profile perfectly. Will ride around back and finish in front of the guys who wreck.
• Feel good about Timmy Hill and Chad Finchum starting so far back. Some concerns about equipment reliability and them racing too aggressively though. Want them to ride in back until Stage 3.
• The JDM and BJM cars will ride in back together and let others wreck out. This is good for Vargas, Earnhardt, Bilicki, Mills, Miller, Little and Howard.
• Nemechek and Currey will do well if the cars hold together. It's a big if, but MHR cars have done pretty well at the plate tracks this season.
• Smithley for tournaments, too risky for cash.