talladega

Saturday Night Cup Update:  From an overall approach standpoint, I really don't like the extreme uncertainty we have about how this new package is going to race.  I will be playing a much lighter bankroll this week because I think the chance for chaos is way too high.  I also think we'll see a lot of driver overlap in lineups meaning your outcome is going to come down to the 1 or 2 different drivers in lineups.  Given the chaos theory, I'll be sticking firmly to using only guys starting 20th or worse for cash games.  Here are the guys I'm focusing on right now:

• Denny Hamlin (23rd) -- Won Daytona this year and has finished in the Top 15 the last 5 Talladega races.
• Ryan Newman (24th) -- Finished in the Top 10 in 5 of the last 7 super speedway races.
• Eric Jones (27th) -- 1st, 3rd and 8th place finishes in the last 3 super speedway races.
• Bubba Wallace (28th) -- Top 20 finishes in his 2 Cup Series races at Talladega and Top 20 finishes in 5 of his 6 super speedway races in Cup.
• Ryan Preece (30th) -- 8th at Daytona this year in his lone Cup Series super speedway race.  This team has been very strong at the super speedways for several years now.
• Chris Buescher (31st) -- Top 20 finishes in 3 of the last 4 Talladega races and Top 10 finishes in 3 of the last 4 Daytona races.  As I mentioned with Preece, this team has performed very well at the super speedways for several years.
• Ross Chastain (34th) -- Finished 10th at Daytona this year and has a solid history of bringing the car home in one piece at the super speedways.
• Justin Haley (38th) -- This team is not at all reliable.  But Justin Haley has been really good at the super speedways in the Truck and Xfinity Series.  In 6 super speedway races in those series, he has never finished lower than 18th and he has 3 Top 10 finishes.  If the race turns into a chaotic wreck fest, Haley could turn into a great value if he can avoid the mess.

Back to a super speedway this weekend.  I tend to find those races boring and often stupid.  I don't like the wrecks and think it's dumb that cars get smashed up for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  But, if done right and with a little luck, there's lots of money to be won in fantasy games at these tracks.  Here are my Cup and Xfinity Series notes heading into the weekend:
Cup Series

• It's a totally new super speedway package this weekend.  The old restrictor plate is being replaced by a tapered spacer.  This will increase the engine horsepower by about 100hp and perhaps allow for some additional driver input and throttle control.  The car will also have a higher spoiler on the rear deck lid, which will increase the turbulence and size of the hole the car punches in the air.  No one really knows how this new package will race.  Some speculation I've heard is that people think it's going to allow trailing cars to get bigger runs on the cars in front of them and be able to close on them from further back.  If so, it should mean lots of passing but also lots of wrecking when late attempts to block a run cause contact.
• For fantasy racing purposes, I'd stick with the general strategy we've always talked about at the super speedways.  Focus on guys with good, reliable teams who are starting further back in the field (i.e., from 20th on back).  Usually there are plenty of those guys to choose from.  This strategy both minimizes risk (because the negative position difference penalty is not as big if your guy gets caught in a wreck) and provides significant upside for positive position difference.
• Don't worry about leaving salary on the table.  If I stick to the right strategy and leave $2,000 salary on the table, I'm fine with that -- even in a cash game.
• Don't focus on traditional dominators to lead laps and get fastest laps.  In the last four races here, no one has ever gotten more than 10 fastest laps in any race.  Typically, we've had a handful of guys run 8-10 fastest laps.  So, at most, we're looking at 4-5 points for that.  For laps led, we've seen Logano and Kurt Busch lead 70 and 100 laps, respectively, in recent races.  But those are so hard to predict and so risky.  Both of them started near the front and carried huge position difference downside if they got caught in a wreck.  Especially with the new package this weekend, I'm very hesitant to try to guess on who might lead the most laps and take that risk.
• I'll update the Cup Series notes Saturday night after qualifying.  That will really narrow down the field of guys in play for fantasy games to about 10-15 guys.

Xfinity

• Everything will happen on a really compressed schedule on Saturday, so I won't have time to update after qualifying.
• We'll be using the same general strategy outlined for the Cup Series -- focus on guys with credible teams starting from 20th on back.  I'd be OK going up to 15th for Xfinity if needed to get guys on quality teams.
• Traditional start and park guys like Jeff Green, Mike Harmon, etc. often attempt to run the full race at super speedways because the draft gives them the speed to actually hang with the pack.  I still wouldn't recommend them for cash games since they still don't have top rate equipment or Cup level pit crews, etc., but they are more viable and tournament options for sure.
• Some of the guys with the best super speedway performance recently:
  • Justin Allgaier -- Top 10 in last three Talladega races and last two Daytona races
  • Bradon Jones -- Top 12 finishes in last 4 super speedway races -- Top 3 finishes in the last two super speedway races
  • Michael Annnett -- Won Daytona to open this year
  • John Hunter Nemechek -- Top 10 both super speedway races in Xfinity Series
  • Noah Gragson -- Finished 4th and 11th in two Xfinity super speedway races
  • Ross Chastain -- Solid record over 3 years at these tracks
  • Ryan Sieg -- Top 6 in last two super speedway races and really fast this year
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt -- Led 29 laps and ran well in season opener at Daytona
  • Jeff Green -- Finished 7th at Daytona this year.  10th and 13th last two Dega races
  • Alex Labbe and Josh Williams -- Solid and cheap, even though salary shouldn't be a huge issue.  This is an under the radar solid team and both cars have sponsorship, so there should be no issue with parking it as has come up when their cars are not sponsored.
• I also like Landon Cassill.  He'll be replacing Ross Chastain in the #4 car this weekend because Ross is moving up to a second Kaulig car.  Cassill hasn't done an Xfinity super speedway race in quite some time, but he has always been solid in those races in the Cup Series and the #4 team is pretty solid as well.