I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
Sunday Morning Update:
Here are the bets I'm playing for today's race:
I'll have a short article covering both the Xfinity and Cup Series up real late Friday night. Draft Kings didn't take advantage of the opportunity to price up guys starting in the back, so lineups mostly make themselves this week for cash games and 50/50s.
For the benefit of newer players, let's talk briefly about lineup building for these unique super speedway races. Unlike a normal week, every one of these races has at least one big wreck that takes out 5+ cars and damages others. We often see multiple wrecks like this over the course of the race. So we're only looking to survive those incidents and end up with as many cars as possible on the lead lap. Also unlike a normal week, we don't often see a dominator in these races. Fastest laps are always widely dispersed among the whole field and rarely does one driver lead a bulk of the laps like we might see in a normal week.
All this dramatically changes our targets for this week. It's really hard to predict who will wreck since so much of it is being in the wrong (or right) place at the wrong (or right) time. Since dominators aren't really a thing and the wrecks are so random, we don't want to have guys starting at the front of the field because they really don't offer the normal upside and they will be a huge negative position difference hit if they get caught in a wreck. Having one guy starting in the Top 10 who wrecks can quite literally kill your whole lineup because you'll be looking at -20 points from that roster spot. To avoid any chance of that, we want cars starting further back where there is tremendous upside if they finish on the lead lap and limited downside if they get unlucky and wreck out.
Just to put some numbers behind this, in last year's Xfinity race, 37 cars started the race but only 25 were running at the end of the race and only 22 of those were on the lead lap. 3 cars that started inside the Top 10 did not finish the race and 5 of the Top 15 starters did not finish. If you had any of those cars that started near the front but didn't finish, you weren't winning anything in Fantasy NASCAR.
With that background, I see no reason to use anyone starting better than 30th. Don't worry about leaving a lot of salary on the table. Let's run down the roster of those options:
30th - Chad Finchum - He's run six of these races, which helps. The equipment is not the best though and he's finished 28th or worst in four of the six races.
31st - Myatt Snider - Will probably be 75%+ owned in cash games. Decent driver, pretty respectable car, been popular already this year.
32nd - Tommy Joe Martins - He's fine, but this car has had mechanical gremlins throughout the year. Only one super speedway start.
33rd - Timmy Hill - Lots of super speedway experience. In the best of the MBM equipment, which still isn't saying much. Finished 3rd at Daytona (the other super speedway) earlier this season. I think he'll be at or near the 75% ownership mark as well.
34th - A.J. Allmendinger - Play him. No analysis needed unless you want to be cute in a large, mega multi-entry tournament.
35th - Mason Massey - He's fine. Decent team, decent driver. But this is his first super speedway start.
36th - Jeff Green - Veteran driver with tons of super speedway experience. He is priced really low because he is normally a start and park. But he doesn't park at super speedways and he's finished 13th or better in three of the last four super speedway races. Should be 75%+ ownership.
37th - Matt Mills - Same team and much the same story as Mason Massey (35th). The only difference is that Mills has a couple super speedway starts, including a 17th place finish at the last Talladega race.
38th - John Jackson - I don't have 100% confidence this car will finish the race. Many better options.
39th - Colin Garrett - He's had some good results lately after a mechanical issue in his first race of the season. This is his first super speedway race. Nothing but upside. I think he'll be highly owned because of the starting spot and his recent results.
There are some real good and obvious plays in this pool and plenty to work with. But, if you want to creep a little bit out of the Top 30 to round out the roster, I'd look at Vinnie Miller. He's finished in the Top 20 in six of the last seven super speedway races. He's on the same team as Mason Massey and Matt Mills. Again, a lot of this is luck, but these guys will also probably use the strategy of riding around together at the back of the pack to avoid any wrecks early in the race. They'll only move forward after others wreck out and the race is coming to an end. That's the kind of approach we want this week.
Don't have a whole lot more to say here. Once again, I don't see any reason to use anyone starting better than 30th. There are plenty of adequate plays starting in the back. The lineup pretty much makes itself and I don't even feel comfortable naming any specific guys.
My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games.