texas

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE: News already that Truex, Suarez, Buescher and DiBenedetto will go to the rear.  I think this is actually a sneaky good thing for Buescher in tournaments.  He's a solid play at his $6,200 salary notwithstanding this setback.  He's been strong at the 1.5 tracks and the JTG team is using Hendrick engines this weekend.  I think it takes the other three guys off the table entirely.

For cash games, I'm pretty well set on the top side of my roster at Harvick, Larson and Eric Jones.  NBC's practice coverage showed just how consistent Harvick was on long runs.  He starts 3rd and I expect he'll be leading the race by Lap 20 or so.  He's in a great spot to dominate.  Larson starts 22nd and gives you great position difference upside.  He's been very strong at 1.5 mile tracks despite typically starting outside the Top 10.  He has 2 starts outside the Top 20 at 1.5 mile tracks this year and finished 4th (with 101 laps led) and 3rd (no laps led) in those 2 races.  Jones was also very fast in practice and he has Top 8 finishes in 6 of the last 8 races at 1.5 mile tracks.  (I am still toying with the idea of rolling out both Harvick and Kyle Busch.  I think it does too much harm to the bottom of your lineup to work.  But I'm still mulling it over since Kyle B is so damn consistent at the 1.5 mile tracks and can always jump up and dominate a race.  It worries me to fade him -- but less so than the fear of fading Harvick.)

There are different ways to go with the rest of the lineup.  You can take one or two sub $6K guys and try to get another potential dominator like Keselowski, Almirola or Blaney.  If you go that route, my favorite sub $6k guys are Ty Dillon, Michael McDowell and Corey LaJoie.  Or you can go more balanced with guys in the $7K range.  In that area, I like Allmendinger and Stenhouse the best.  I'm leaning toward the more balanced approach in cash games and the idea of using multiple sub $6K guys in tournaments only.

​Good luck!  

Another pretty nice week last week.  Cole Whitt coming up big with a 24th place finish, Allmendinger 14th and our Sunday update man Martin Truex all the way to 3rd with laps led and fastest laps.  Would have liked to see more from Kyle Busch, Paul Menard and Austin Dillon, but you can't get all the breaks.

Texas is 334 laps, so lots of laps led and fastest lap points on the table again.  Also, as you look back at track history, remember we had a repave and reconfiguration after the 2016 season.  So only the 2017 races and Spring 2018 were on this layout and pavement.  We also have a new tire compound this weekend to add to the mix.  Here are some guys I am focused on heading into practice and qualifying on Friday and Saturday.

• The Big Three, of course.  Since the repave, Harvick has finished 4th, 1st and 2nd with 77, 38 and 87 laps led.  Kyle Busch won in the Spring with 116 laps led.  Truex wrecked in the Spring.  But prior to that he had 6 consecutive Top 10 finishes and had a four race streak where he led at least 49 laps.  In the first two races following the repave, Truex finished 8th and 2nd with 49 and 107 laps led.
• Ryan Blaney at $8,700 DK.  In the last two races here he's finished 6th and 5th.  In the first race following the repave, he finished 12th, but let 148 laps.
• Aric Almirola at $8,100 DK.  This seems like a really low salary to me.  He's finished in the Top 10 in the last three 1.5 mile tracks.  And before that at Chicago, he led 70 laps and probably had the best car for a bulk of that race.
• Paul Menard at $7,900 DK.  He's been running very well on the 1.5 mile tracks lately.  He was running on legitimate speed in the Top 10 at the last 1.5 mile track at Kansas until he sustained damage from a random collision on pit road.
• Jamie McMurray at $7,100 DK.  McMurray has run well here and particularly so since the repave.  In those 3 races, he has 2 Top 10 finishes including a 3rd place finish with +21 position difference this Spring.
• Ty Dillion at $5,600 DK.  2 Top 20 finishes in the 3 races since the repave.  In 4 Cup Series starts here, Ty has finished 20th, 17th, 24th and 13th with a collective +20 position difference.
• Michael McDowell at $5,500 DK.  In 3 races since the repave, he's finished 23rd, 21st and 14th.

I think some more opportunities will open as the weekend goes along.  None of the other big time drivers ($9K+ guys) are standing out to me on paper right now.  But I'm sure a few of them will separate themselves by showing good speed in practice and/or qualifying.  We'll post the final update very late Saturday night.