texas trucks

The Trucks Series will race on Sunday morning before the Cup Series race. Typically we see the Trucks race at night here, so it will throw a little bit of a curveball at the teams to be racing during the day. Here is what I'm thinking.

• I can make a really, really good case for all of the Top 4 guys and I wouldn't be surprised to see them all split the laps led and fastest laps -- which is something we see fairly often in the Trucks Series. 
  • Austin Hill - Overall the best guy at the 1.5 mile tracks. In ten races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has two wins and five Top 3 finishes. He's also very safe with only one really bad finish -- the earlier Texas race. That was an engine issue, though, so it's nothing we'd expect to carry over to this race. That said, Austin hasn't had much success at Texas at any time in his career -- with only one Top 5 finish. His salary is an issue too.
  • Zane Smith - He had a top three truck in the earlier Texas race without a doubt. He was so good early on that he passed Kyle Busch on track and Kyle was raving about how good Smith's truck was. Throughout the race, he had bad pit stops that set him back and then he got in the wall in Stage 3 -- which resulted in green flag pit stops that sent him multiple laps down. He had a great truck last week at a 1.5 mile track as well. The speed will be there, but we need him to be mistake free to make it work.
  • Brett Moffitt - Brett had a good truck last week, but I think he really won that race on pit road. He finished Stage 2 in 9th place, but came off pit road in the Top 5. Then he was racing in 2nd behind Zane Smith, but beat Smith in their green flag pit stops in Stage 3 and went to the lead when all the pit stops cycled through. Again, it was a very good truck. But it highlights how the performance of the whole team impacts the real race as well as fantasy results. Brett had a Top 5 truck at Texas earlier this year as well. I don't think he dominates, but he should finish very well.
  • Sheldon Creed - So much upside here. Creed has been really, really fast at the last two 1.5 mile tracks -- scoring a ton of laps led and fastest laps. He finished poorly at Texas earlier this year, but don't read too much into that. He was leading the race early and got a flat tire that killed his day. He went a few laps down pitting under the green flag and could never recover. A very scary fade.
  • Bottom line - Smith and Creed have the most upside, but are more risky. Hill and Moffitt have less dominator potential, but are safer bets to finish in the Top 5. None is a bad play.
• Having said all that, I think Christian Eckes wins this race. He had an awesome truck here in the first race and probably would have won easily had it not been for Kyle Busch. With 15 laps to go in that race, Kyle was leading, Eckes was 3.9 seconds behind him and the third place truck (Brett Moffitt) was over 8 seconds behind Eckes. (Remember Hill, Smith and Creed had issues, so we can't go too crazy about this. But he was right with Kyle Busch and Moffitt had nothing for them.) Eckes is bringing the same truck back for this race and that truck also won both races here last year with Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle driving. I'm taking a stand on this one and locking him in. I'm also already down on his +1100 odds to win the race.
• There are a lot of mid-pack guys to like as well:
  • Stewart Friesen -- Not expecting a Top 5 like the first race, but a Top 10 is realistic.
  • Tanner Gray -- Too cheap. +10 position difference is very realistic and there could be more.
  • Raphael Lassard -- Way too cheap in a Kyle Busch truck starting 20th.
  • Chase Purdy -- Also way too cheap in a top end GMS truck.
  • Dylan Lupton -- Expensive, but certainly can finish in the Top 10-15.
  • James Buescher -- I'm reluctant to use a guy who hasn't raced in a long time when there's no practice and it can be a tricky track. And he's not cheap.
  • Chandler Smith -- Running really, really well right now. Would not shock me to see him win. Way too risky for cash games, but worth a shot in larger tournaments.
• Honestly, I don't see a punt play worth using. Josh Bilicki would be OK if we know he will actually run the whole race. Ray Ciccarelli is probably the best option down here, but I don't even feel comfortable with that. Probably avoiding this area this week.