Texas Trucks

I think there's a decent chance this race turns into a caution filled wreck fest. First, NASCAR scheduled a race to start at noon in Texas in the middle of June. It's supposed to by sunny with the temperature starting at 90 and going up from there. It's going to be unbearably hot which is going to make the track slick as hell. Second, we've got the goofy traction compound in the outside groove and, as we saw in the first Charlotte practice a few weeks ago, that stuff is like ice when it's not worn in. With no practice or anything before this race, the traction compound is probably going to be a "no go" area for most drivers. Third, we've got the least talented of the fields with a lot of aggressive drivers. It's all a recipe for a likely disaster.

As far as DFS is concerned, I see this as a stars and scrubs race. We've got four really great plays up top, not a whole lot in the middle to be excited about and then some rides we can tolerate at the lowest end of the salary scale.

Stars

• J.H. Nemechek - By far the best Truck Series regular this season.  Already two wins at the four 1.5 mile tracks and no finish worse than 5th at those tracks. He dominated the last 1.5 mile race at Charlotte without Kyle Busch in the field. It's possible that Chase Elliott or Sheldon Creed get up front and lead at some point, but Nemechek is very likely to lead early and rack up a bunch of laps led and fastest laps points early in this race.
• Chase Elliott - In a GMS truck this week, which he did a few times last year. He starts 22nd, so he can easily score a bunch of points without even leading a bunch of laps or running fastest laps.
• Sheldon Creed - Dominated the last Texas race in the Fall. Been really good at the 1.5 mile tracks but hit some bad luck. I'm leaning Creed over Ross Chastain because Creed is so much more likely to lead laps or run fastest laps. The ceiling here is huge with position difference added in.
• Ross Chastain - Starts 24th, so has a ton of position difference upside. The ceiling of an Elliott or Creed isn't quite there with Chastain. 

Scrubs

• Tyler Hill - The Hill truck finished 18th and 11th last year at Texas. I like this truck a bit better when Timmy is driving, but Tyler has been pretty solid in his own right. There's not going to be anything huge here, but we'd be hoping for Tyler to keep it clean and finish around 20th.
• Tate Fogleman - Should be better than a handful of trucks starting in front of him. Just want him to finish around 25th or so.
• Ray Ciccarelli - Hold your nose on this one. Ray actually did ok at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. If the truck doesn't break down, we just want him to pass the guys who wreck out early. 

The reason I'm taking this approach is the guys in the mid-range just don't do it for me. Brennan Poole is an option, but this is his first race of the year -- which worries me with no practice. He also tends to be pretty aggressive which could go wrong in a hurry at Texas. A guy like Josh Berry is just too expensive for the truck he is in. This is 15th-20th place equipment at best.


Bets
Crafton -120 Dollar
Nemechek -125 Elliott
​C. Smith -105 Dollar