texas trucks

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The Trucks race on Saturday night is the misnamed "Vankor 350" because the race is really 250 miles long -- which means 167 laps and stages of 40, 40 and 87. There will apparently be no competition caution, but an incident caution is still likely in Stage 1.

Speaking of incidents, Texas truck races seem to have a lot of them.

• The last race here had 13 cautions with almost 40% of the race run under yellow. Only 9 trucks finished on the lead lap and 14 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.
• The Spring 2019 race had 9 cautions with 32% of the race run under yellow. 15 trucks finished on the lead lap and 11 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.
• In Fall 2018, there were 7 cautions, 11 trucks finished on the lead lap and 10 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.
• In Spring 2018, there were 9 cautions, 12 trucks finished on the lead lap and 14 of 32 trucks finished 10 or more laps down.

The first question again is what to do with Kyle Busch. Chances are he dominates this race completely. He starts 4th and I don't think he'll have much problem taking the lead quickly. With no competition caution, he could build a pretty significant lead before the end of the stage or pit stops, which should help him stay up front after that.

The bigger question is what to do with Ross Chastain, who is also an excellent play with Top 5 and +20 position difference upside. It is possible to pair Kyle and Ross -- who I think will be the two highest scorers by a decent margin -- and then fill in with cheap guys starting in the back. The cheap guys aren't great or reliable, but they don't have much downside and give you the room to play the two studs. The other option is to be more balanced and pair Kyle with a group of more reliable guys with some position difference upside.

Who to target in those groups?

• On the extreme salary saver side, guys like Cory Roper and Codie Rohrbaugh are fine. I generally don't like either in the cash game setting because they typically do pretty well or really, really bad. But you have to roll with them if you want Kyle and Ross. Of the two, you have to go Roper right now. Rohrbaugh literally wrecked on the first lap in the last two races. Since it's a small team, who knows how well the truck will even run after major damage just last week.
• I do kind of like Timmy Hill as well even though he's starting a little further forward than we'd like at 22nd. It looks like he's bringing an equipment upgrade this weekend, so something barely inside the Top 20 seems possible. But we really just want him to hold his starting spot and get us 20+ points.
• Brennan Poole, Jordan Anderson, Austin Wayne Self, Spencer Boyd and Tate Fogleman all offer some value.
  • Poole has the most upside and he has three Top 20 finishes in the last four races. He finished 9th and 7th at Texas last year.
  • Anderson and Self have basically the same profile. Both should have enough speed to hang right around 20th. But both are also risks for wrecking or equipment failure. On the plus side, they're veterans with decent experience at Texas. 
  • Boyd and Fogleman kind of blend together too and are more 24th-26th kind of guys. I feel like Fogleman should be getting more out of the truck (Tyler Dippel did last year), but the results haven't been there just yet.
  • If salary were no issue, Poole would be clearly the best play in this group.
• Derek Kraus is around the same price and has been really, really good this year. He has three Top 10 finishes in the last four races. I don't think we can count on that, but 12th-15th is a reasonable projection. He also carries the most risk, though, if he gets caught up in one of the wrecks since he starts 17th.
• Higher up the salary range, I like Christian Eckes, Tanner Gray and Matt Crafton to have solid returns for their salaries. Rough projections to give an idea of value are 5th for Eckes, 12th for Gray and 8th for Crafton.