texas xfinity

UPDATES FROM INITIAL POST IN BOLD

The first of three Texas races is Saturday afternoon in the Xfinity Series. It will be 300 miles, which is 200 laps -- leaving 50 points for laps led and about 100 points for fastest laps. Kyle Busch is back in the field in a Joe Gibbs Racing car starting 28th.

The first question is what to do with Kyle. To me, it's not much of a question at all. You play him. 

• You can see from the DK box scores that he's run three Xfinity races this year and finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in those races. He's led at least 45 laps and run at least 32 fastest laps in each of those races. He's scored 75, 96 and 113 DK points. His salary is all the way up to $17,000, so he needs to score 85 points to hit 5x value.
• He starts 28th. Let's say he hits his worst numbers from earlier this season -- 3rd place, 45 laps led and 32 fastest laps. That adds up to 93.25 DK points. 
• Now let's average his three races this season. That would be 2nd place, 72 laps led and 40 fastest laps, which adds up to 106 DK points.
• If he wins this race, that alone would be 73 DK points before you even consider laps led and fastest laps. So you can see just how high his ceiling is here.
• Finally, Kyle ran the Spring race at Texas last year. He started 5th, won the race, led 33 laps and ran 52 fastest laps for 84 DK points. That's right at the 5x return we need. And remember the field was much tougher last year with Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. Kyle has a much easier path this year to exceeding his 84 DK points from last year's race.

The other factor that makes the Kyle decision really easy is that we've got some solid plays at very affordable salaries. This makes it fairly easy to put together a credible lineup even with Kyle eating $17k of the salary cap.

• Colby Howard at $5,700 starting 35th is almost a free square. He's been running the 1.5 mile tracks this year in the #15 for JD Motorsports. He had a run of three Top 10 finishes coming into Kentucky last weekend. He got wrecked in the first Kentucky race and then ran a real conservative race in his back up car (which is his Texas car) and came home 21st in the second race. Expecting something around 20th-22nd is very reasonable and that would get you about 35-40 DK points -- easily exceeding the target 5x return.
• Josh Williams at $6,400 is also a strong play. I'm not sure why DK cut his salary this much as he's been in the $7k-8k range most of the season. For good reason. He's a solid, veteran driver who is unlikely to screw up. He starts 24th and should be good for at least +5 position difference barring any incidents. He already has four Top 15 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year. Josh finished 14th in both Texas races last year. If he were to repeat that here, it's 40 DK points.
• Jess Little at $5,200 is also in play. He's finished in the Top 20 in the last eight races this season. If he just holds his 20th starting spot, that's 24 DK points -- which is fine at this salary. I kind of see him as the lowest you can safely go in cash games. Some might consider Kyle Weatherman at $5,100 starting 33rd, but I don't have a good handle on when to expect them to run a full race. It's a much riskier situation with him because the equipment isn't as reliable and we don't know what they intend to do. Stefan Parsons at $4,800 might also get some consideration. But, again, that is much less reliable equipment and that team has several finishes of 30th or worse this year due to equipment issues. I wouldn't say you can't use those guys -- just understand the added risk that comes with them.
• I'm adding David Starr at $4,900 as a reasonable extreme salary saver play. He's in the #07 car which is generally more reliable than the cars Weatherman and Parsons are in. Starr is also a veteran driver in the Series who has seen it all. This should be around a 20th place car with him behind the wheel.  
• The group from $6,300 - $7,100 offers a number of solid plays.
  • Joe Graf Jr. has been really good lately at the 1.5 mile tracks with three Top 16 finishes in the last four races at those tracks.
  • I don't remember ever seeing Ryan Sieg under $7k and he's got some upside starting 18th. He's been up and down but the car usually has Top 10-12 speed. He finished 10th in both Texas races last year. And, in the last six Texas races, he's not finished worse than 20th.
  • Brandon Brown is a lot like Sieg. In seven races at 1.5 mile tracks this season, he's finished in the Top 15 five times. He can be a little volatile though, so be aware of the risk.
  • Brett Moffitt might be slightly more reliable than Sieg or Brown, but he's also slightly more expensive and starts a bit further forward so comes with more downside if something goes wrong.
  • Timmy Hill starts 27th and I have this guy on my target list almost every week. The main reason is he's very unlikely to screw up and his equipment seems to be getting more reliable -- especially when he's in the #61 car. The price is probably creeping too high, though, for someone who really can't finish much higher than 20th unless all hell breaks loose.
• Once again, Tommy Joe Martins is just sitting out there looking like he's in play starting 36th, but I can't do it in a cash game. I say it week after week, the car has speed but breaks down literally every week. Until the thing can stay together for a complete race, I just can't see it.
• Justin Haley and Anthony Alfredo should both be Top 10 cars and are very reasonably priced. Haley has made some enemies with hard racing and probably overly aggressive stuff the last few races, so pay back could be coming at any time. That said, the Kaulig cars usually seem to finish better then they ran all race long when the dust settles. Alfredo seems to be getting more comfortable and his car is fast. He has three Top 6 finishes in the last four races at 1.5 mile tracks.
• Jeremy Clements starting 22nd should have the speed to go +10 position difference.
• How can you not love Austin Cindric the way his car has been at the 1.5 mile tracks! I've been talking about his speed there all season long and he finally made it through last weekend at Kentucky without making mistakes and no one could touch him. He scored 91 and 123 DK points in those two races. Texas has a lot of similarities in that it is mostly a one groove race track and there isn't a lot of tire wear and fall off because the surface is still pretty new. It's most likely that Austin leads this race early as I don't think Michael Annett or Jeb Burton will have the speed to hold him off for more than a lap or two. Let's just hope they don't wreck into each other or Austin. If you can make him work with Kyle, you should have the two best cars in the field and I'd expect them to combine to lead 80%+ of this race.