trucks championship race

150 laps of racing for the Trucks Series championship on Friday night. Here's my breakdown:

I'm going to start with the cheaper plays because those are pretty easy to nail down this week. These are the best targets for $7k and under:

• Ryan Truex - Starts 25th so gives you a decent floor and some upside of about +10 position difference. Honestly, though, the Niece trucks have not been strong at all late in the season, so I'm not super excited to play any of them. But the price is pretty good here and there aren't a lot of really cheap options.
• Tyler Hill - This team has been pretty strong and consistent throughout the year. I'd rather have Timmy in the truck, but it's Tyler this weekend. I think there's +6-8 position difference potential here. And it's probably a little more reliable than the Truex/Niece situation at the moment.
• Tate Fogleman - Tate was doing OK last week and then got caught up in a wreck and got heavy damage. So he's starting way back in 28th. He finished 18th and 15th in the two earlier short, flat track races (Gateway and Richmond) and something around 18th-20th is a reasonable expectation. That would easily pay off the $5,800 salary.
• Lessard, Bayne and Hocevar are all OK, but I don't see any of them having any + position difference upside. Best case is they finish right around where they start. Lessard might have a bit of upside since he should have the equipment to finish in the Top 10, but he's finished 20th or worse in the last two short, flat tracks, so the downside is substantial as well.

The upper end of the salary structure is really interesting. Let's talk about the top targets:

• Grant Enfinger - Hard not to love ThorSport trucks on short, flat tracks. At Richmond, ThorSport finished 1st (Enfinger), 2nd (Crafton) and 3rd (Rhodes). Last week, at Martinsville, they were 1st (Enfinger), 2nd (Rhodes) and 5th (Crafton). He's won the last two short, flat track races. He should lead at least some laps at the beginning and get a few fastest laps. He should finish in the Top 5. And he's only $9,200.
• Zane Smith - At sub-$10k, this is really hard to pass up as well. He has led at least 20 laps and scored at least 45 DK points at the three short, flat track races this season. My biggest concerns are that he doesn't have the best pit stops and all the other best trucks are starting up front with him.
• Sheldon Creed - Really good at restarts and been really fast most of the year. If someone is going to dominate, it will likely be Creed. But he's expensive and somewhat limits what else you can do. It scares me to fade him.
• Brett Moffitt - Not really a dominator, but probably the safest play of the Championship 4.
• Stewart Friesen - There is really no scenario where he should be sub-$9k at a short track. Friesen won this race last year despite being penalized and thrown to the rear of the field for jumping the initial race start. He was pretty clearly the best truck. Now, it was a totally different truck as he was in GMS equipment last year and now has his own equipment. But still. These are his best tracks. He's not a must have because he probably doesn't lead a bunch of laps, but it's a really solid play at this price.
• Of the top position difference guys (Dylan Lupton, Austin Hill, Chandler Smith and Sam Mayer), I'd rank them in that order. Lupton is the only one I would be really excited to use in cash games.
  • ​Lupton - Should have about a 50 point floor. Great for cash games.
  • Hill - Was bad here last year and hasn't been great at short, flat tracks. He might pick up a few spots, but I don't see him as a dominator or Top 5 threat. Even without top end upside, he's still a pretty decent play at this salary and starting spot. But I don't think this is a must have kind of situation as it might appear on the surface.
  • Smith - Finished 3rd here last year and ran 12 fastest laps. Been running pretty well lately and can probably get a Top 10. But risky too.
  • Mayer - I've got to think GMS is entirely focused on Creed, Moffitt and Z. Smith this week, so don't know how much attention or work went into this effort. Tough to see him doing too much.