trucks - daytona road course

FRIDAY 1:15 PM EASTERN TIME -- ADDING A FEW NOTES IN BOLD BELOW

I am very nervous about this race -- and particularly the first lap -- for two reasons. First, we have a very jumbled up field because the starting order was essentially set by the Daytona superspeedway result. So we've got some very weak trucks and drivers starting near the front and some very strong trucks and drivers starting in the middle and back of the field. Second, we've got a lot of newcomers who are racing for the first time in the Trucks Series and/or for the first time at the Daytona road course. Add this to there being no practice or qualifying and it's very concerning. In short, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a pile up in the very first turn.

We've also got rain to contend with today making the chance for chaos even higher. And if the grass is wet and muddy, going off course at the wrong spot could be a killer.

Top Driver Targets

• Sheldon Creed - Creed is really the only guy starting in the Top 20 who I am interested in for cash games. He dominated most of the race here last year and was very impressive. What was most impressive was Creed's ability to pass other trucks on track rather than through pit timing. Several times, he restarted several rows back and quickly raced his way to the front by passing other quality trucks. He was the best in the field at backing up a corner and getting a great drive off to complete passes. That's also how he held off Brett Moffitt following the late race restart. He is easily the safest bet for a Top 3 finish.
  The real question with Creed is whether he can score enough to make it worth the salary and the risk of taking someone starting so high. With only 44 laps in the race, he would have to completely dominate from beginning to end to reach even 15 dominator points for laps led and fastest laps. And he only has +4 position difference points available. So he really only pays off the salary if he wins and dominates at least half the race. There's no doubt he can do it, but it's also concerning to roster a guy that must hit near his ceiling performance to pay off the salary.
• Stewart Friesen - Friesen has a solid record at road courses, finishing 7th, 7th and 10th in his three races. He ran into some electrical/battery issues at Daytona last year or probably would have finished better than 10th in that race. Reasonably safe bet for a Top 10 finish.
• Timmy Hill - I am confident anytime I use Timmy Hill in a Truck Series race because I know he won't screw up and he will take care of the truck. Starting 34th, he has +15 position difference upside for a near minimum salary. He's easily the safest cheap option.
• Sam Mayer - Sam starts 36th in the #75 truck. He had a lot of success last season part-time in a GMS truck, so this is a downgrade in equipment. But I like that he's got experience in the Trucks Series and at road courses. Parker Klingerman drove this truck at Daytona last year and it had good speed. I could see Sam pushing for a Top 15 finish and that would be +20 position difference.
• Tyler Ankrum - He's run 9th and 6th in his two Truck Series road course races. What I liked from last year's Daytona race is you never heard anything about him. He simply ran a solid race in the Top 10 most of the day. This is a top GMS truck, so he should finish in the Top 10 once again. A little bit more expensive, but also probably a little bit safer than Friesen and Mayer.
• Derek Kraus, Tanner Gray and Kaz Grala - These guys are all really close in salary and I can see reasons for and against all three. Kraus and Gray should have a little better equipment, but Grala is probably the most reliable driver in this group. I don't think you can go wrong with any of them. Kraus had a terrible Daytona race last year, but had some moderate road course success coming up the ranks. Gray did OK here last year and is in a solid truck. You'd hope for a Top 15 finish. Grala has experience in trucks and at this track, so offers a solid profile.

A few other notes on guys of interest:

• Brett Moffitt - Was very good here last year, but has moved from a top team (GMS) to a middle tier team (Niece). I don't think he'll compete for the win and something around 5th is probably a best case scenario. Safe, but probably too expensive for what he offers in a Niece truck.
• Camden Murphy - Cheap and starts way back. I'd prefer to not rely on a NEMCO truck and Timmy Hill is only $100 more with a much safer profile.
• Todd Gilliland - Was running in the Top 5 or so here last year before having electrical/battery issues. He does have some decent road course history, but this truck hasn't been the most reliable piece. Too expensive and risky for cash games when Ankrum, Friesen and Mayer are all options at about the same price.
• Parker Chase and Raphael Lessard - Trucks should be strong. But too risky for cash games.
• Jett Noland - I don't see it. Niece trucks are not great. He's really young and has no truck experience whatsoever. That crosses him off my list since there's no practice. He's touted as a Rookie of the Year in the Trans Am Series last year, but when you look at the stats, it seems like he's the only rookie that ran all the races. It wasn't like he was out there winning races. He just had more chances to accumulate points. His division in the Trans Am Series was dominated by Mike Skeen -- who ran 23rd in a NEMCO truck at the Daytona road course race last year. That seems like a ceiling for Noland here. It could work, but other guys with similar salaries and starting spots are better cash game plays.
• Lawless Alan - Like Noland, he has no Truck Series experience. Reaume trucks are among the worst in the series. Just use Timmy Hill if you need to save salary.

A couple of bets that I think have some value --

• Matt Crafton -115 over Zane Smith
• Stewart Friesen +105 over Johnny Sauter
• Sheldon Creed +400 to win the race is fine. I think it'll come down to him or John Hunter Nemechek.