vegas cup

With qualifying rained out, we don't have any real good cars starting too far back in the field. So it's a challenging weekend to figure out where to go. I'll try to narrow it down as best I can:

• $6k and under -- You'll probably need two guys from this group. Suarez will be heavily owned starting 35th and it's probably best to take him. Understand his upside is probably only in the 26th-28th range. John Hunter Nemechek is another good play. He starts 29th. In two races on 1.5 mile tracks last season, he finished 21st and 23rd from a comparable starting spot. For his salary, I'll take the 28-30 points that pays out. LaJoie is a solid option, too, although I think Nemechek gives you a bit more upside.  If you need to save a few more bucks, JJ Yeley is OK as well. He finished around 30th in all four races he did at 1.5 mile tracks last season and is a decent bet for 20 points or so.
• Dominators -- This is really hard to predict. My top two options are Harvick and Logano. Last Spring, Harvick finished 4th, led 88 laps and had 52 fastest laps for 85 DK points. In Fall, he finished 2nd, led 47 laps and had 23 fastest laps for 67 DK points. Logano was even better. In Spring, he won the race, led 86 laps and had 32 fastest laps for 93 DK points. In Fall, he finished 9th, but led 105 laps and had 31 fastest laps for 85 DK points. The Penske Fords as a group did really, really well at Vegas last year. Keselowski finished 2nd in Spring with 74 DK points and 3rd in the Fall with 60 DK points. Blaney was off in the Spring, but finished 5th in the Fall with 67 DK points. That said, I can't argue with those who want to go Truex - who won here in Fall. The only reason I'd put him slightly below the others is the loss of crew chief Cole Pearn. He's one of the best and I'd like to see how the team adapts before jumping fully on board. I'm less concerned with the Penske crew chief shuffle because they are all experienced Penske crew chiefs.
• IMPORTANT NOTE: Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin will have to start from the rear, but will retain their official 1st and 4th starting spots for Fantasy Nascar scoring. They are not cash game plays starting from the rear.
• Others -- I'd fill things out with guys in the middle you feel most comfortable with. Some guys I like are (1) Eric Jones starting 16th - pretty safe floor there with the most upside of this group. He finished in the Top 10 in 8 of the 11 races at 1.5 mile tracks last season. (2) Jimmie Johnson starting 18th. This is also a pretty safe floor, but probably a bit less upside then Jones.  (3) Stenhouse starting 26th. I generally don't like him in cash games, but this starting spot is enticing. He tends to do fine at 1.5 mile tracks as well. (4) Buescher starting 23rd. He was 11 for 11 finishing in the Top 20 at 1.5 mile tracks last year.

And a few wagers I'm going to play:

• Truex +100 over Kyle Busch - Kyle has added risk starting from the rear.
• Eric Jones +155 over Alex Bowman - This is close to a 50/50 call to me, so I like getting +155.
• Reddick +300 over Stenhouse, Buescher and Custer - This is a Reddick kind of track. He won his last Xfinity race here. I could easily see a 15th place or so and that should be all it takes to beat this group. Risky, but worth it at +300.