vegas cup

I'm not using Harvick. To me, there's just too much uncertainty about how this race is going to play out and who will lead laps. There is an early competition caution and we have a lot of cars up front that could challenge for the lead early -- including William Byron, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott who all start in the Top 8.

With all the uncertainty about who might dominate, my preferred approach this week is to play a couple of position difference guys and make a well balanced lineup. Here are my key targets to build that kind of lineup:

• Ryan Blaney - I got burned by him big time last week but I'm willing to go back to the well because he was great in both Vegas races last year. Starting 26th, I'm looking for a good +15 position difference and it wouldn't surprise me if Blaney is up in the Top 5.
• Joey Logano - Race winning upside starting 15th. He's won the last two Spring races here.
• Aric Almirola - Starting 28th and also has +15 position difference upside. For a pretty reasonable price tag here, he's really hard to pass up in a cash game setting.
• Matt DiBenedetto - I don't love playing Matt here at this salary, but it is still a solid play. I could absolutely see swapping him out if you prefer to use a potential dominator like Harvick, Hamlin or Bowman at a similar price tage.
• Cole Custer - Was running in the Top 5 last week until the last few laps when he got a flat tire. Starts 20th here and is only $6,500. I expect at least +5 position difference with the upside for more.
• Daniel Suarez - Also ran really well last week and it looks like this team has some really solid race cars. Suarez starts 22nd for only $6,100 and can certainly work at that salary with another Top 20 run.
• Denny Hamlin - $9,200 is just too cheap for a guy who can dominate at any time. Led the most laps and ran the most fastest laps in the Fall race here last year.
• Alex Bowman - $8,800 for the guy who good enough to challenge for the win the last two races here.
• Eric Jones - Starts 29th, so offers some decent position difference value. Just know you're looking at +10 max here and likely a little less even on a good day.
• Chris Buescher - Maybe. Cheap. Ran well early last week. Just not sure there is any + position difference here.

Bets

• Cole Custer +6600 to win
• Chase Elliott Ev Kevin Harvick