vegas trucks

Last week, the key question was what to do with Kyle Busch.  The correct answer turned out to be to play him.  I happened to win all my cash games and 50/50s even though I didn't use Busch in those contests, but that was a rarity.  Roughly speaking, Busch was used in about 50% of the cash game lineups I saw and those Busch lineups cashed about 75-80% of the time.  In one contest I was in, 15 places cashed and Busch was on 12 of the 15 rosters that cashed.  Only 3 rosters with Busch finished out of the money.  So Busch lineups were 12-3.  In another, 30 places cashed and Busch was on 27 of the 30 rosters that cashed.  Only 8 rosters with Busch finished out of the money.  So Busch lineups were 27-8.  Bottom line -- most people who used Busch cashed and most who did not use him did not cash.

My experience in tournaments was even more lopsided in favor of using Busch.  In the $20K Octane tournament, Busch was on every single one of the Top 45 finishing lineups.  He was 48.9% owned in that tournament.

So is there any reason not to use him again this week in Vegas?  In the plus column for Busch, he won this race from the pole last year and led 55 laps.  In addition, we're starting to get a bit better feel on what teams know what they're doing so I feel a bit more comfortable using some of the salary savers I was hesitant to use last week.  On the downside, his salary increased $500 this week to $15,500.  And, qualifying was rained out last week, so Busch started 7th and gained +6 position difference points.  He's very likely to start on pole this week, so won't have any position difference upside but instead even more downside risk should something go wrong during the race.

Given last week's result, I think we'll see Busch ownership up even more this week.  Most who used him cashed, so they'll use him again.  Most who didn't use him lost, so they'll move towards him this week.  Since I'm guessing his ownership will be 60%+ this week, I'm inclined to use him in all formats because it will be near impossible to cash if he does dominate once again.  That said, if you want to take a high risk, high reward approach, you can fade him and you'll certainly cash everything if he does run into trouble.  Also, if you play multiple tournament lineups, definitely throw in a contrarian one or two without him so you can cash out there if things go wrong for him during the race.

I'll do a quick update before Friday lock to identify my favorite salary savers to pair with Busch.

Some other drivers with strong history at Vegas are:

• Ben Rhodes -- 4th, 7th, 1st in last three Vegas races
• Johnny Sauter -- 2nd place finisher in last two Vegas races
• Grant Enfinger -- won Fall Vegas race last year (Busch did not participate) and has finished 1st, 4th, 9th, 10th in the last four Vegas races -- very under priced at $9K
• Matt Crafton -- Top 8 finishes in three of the last four Vegas races
• Stewart Friesen -- Finished in the Top 8 in eight of the ten races at 1.5 mile tracks last year -- was 5th and 17th at Vegas