vegas trucks

FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON ADD ON: BRET HOLMES IN BOLD BELOW
FRIDAY 5:45PM EST ADD ON: NEW H2H BETS IN BOLD BELOW

Kyle Busch makes his annual return to the Trucks Series at Las Vegas on Friday night, and we're absolutely locking him into those cash game lineups. In his last two races here, Kyle has scored 97 and 106 DK points -- leading over 100 laps and running 48 or more fastest laps in both races. Both times he started right near the front. This race he has even more upside starting 29th. We're now adding in +28 position difference to go along with a slew of laps led and fastest laps. This is a no brainer play in cash games and tournaments unless you're playing multiple tournament lineups and want to go off Kyle in a few of them to have the upper hand if he were to have a mechanical issue or get caught in a wreck.

Where to go after Kyle:

• Austin Hill and Zane Smith -- I think we can find enough value plays to lock in another position difference stud with Hill or Smith.
  • Hill won the Vegas race last Fall, although some pit road and restart magic later in the race really overshadowed the fact he was pretty bad during the first half of the race and was mired in 8th-12th place. That said, I always like Hill at the 1.5 mile tracks and he's got the perfect high floor and high ceiling combo we want. In eleven races at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, Hill had ten Top 10 finishes and seven Top 5 finishes. Pretty impressive. 
  • Smith is very talented and fast. Overall though, I feel he's a little more erratic and not quite as safe as Hill. Just comparing the records at the 1.5 mile tracks last year, Smith had only three Top 5 finishes and finished outside the Top 10 three times (although one of those was an 11th place finish). It's a very strong track record and he should finish in the Top 10. Just a tad more risk here compared to Hill.
  • I suppose you could even throw Parker Klingerman into the mix here. He has Top 10-15 upside and is slightly cheaper than Hill and Smith. I don't think he's quite as safe though because he's in lesser equipment and can get pretty aggressive. But he is cheaper and I could see a case for using him over Hill or Smith if that allows you to feel better about the value plays you can afford for the rest of your lineup.
• Connor Daly -- Real solid play, but is a bit costly. Daly ran the Fall Vegas race with this team and ran 18th. The Niece team was up and down last year, but had two strong races at Vegas with almost all of their trucks finishing in the 12th-18th range in both races. That's certainly a reasonable expectation for Daly, which would get him easily above the 5x return mark on his salary.
• Tanner Gray -- Gray was really, really good here last year. His truck was fast and he finished 8th and 3rd in the two Vegas races last year. Starting 22nd with Top 10 upside for $7k is a real strong package.
• Chase Purdy, Hailie Deegan and Ryan Truex -- I really like this $6,600 - $6,300 range as well.
  • Purdy is in a top tier GMS truck, but doesn't get the most out of it. On equipment alone, he should easily break the Top 15. A GMS truck starting 21st at $6,600 should be an auto play. Purdy is the only thing that gives you pause.
  • Deegan has been fine and a bit unlucky in her first two races this year. On equipment/speed alone, she should be able to get you +10 position difference from the 30th starting spot. She's on the same Ford team as Tanner Gray - which ran very well here last year. So I have no doubt the truck will be quick. She's not the safest play because of her inexperience (she has only raced one 1.5 mile track in the Truck Series), but she's cheap and has a pretty good floor with high upside.
  • Truex was in one of those decent Niece trucks last year and finished 12th here in the Fall. There's no reason to think he won't have Top 15 speed/upside once again. Truex is one of the more reliable pieces relatively speaking in this series.
• Tyler Hill -- Cheap, on the safe side and should be able to run about 20th. I prefer this truck when Timmy is in it, but Tyler is pretty solid in his own right. Just comparing him to some of the other targets here, he's cheaper and probably safer than drivers like Purdy and Deegan, but without quite as much upside.
• B.J. McLeod and Jesse Iwuji -- Let's be entirely clear about these trucks. They are slow. Only Jennifer Jo Cobb and Norm Benning will be slower. The reason to consider them is (1) price and (2) safety. Iwuji usually does a decent job staying low and out of the way as he gets lapped. Vegas is plenty wide, so he should have no trouble with that. B.J. is a veteran who is going to know how to manage his race and get the truck home safely. Unless it's a wreck fest, though, these trucks are not cracking the Top 30. They're cheap, can't go backwards and will give us a small (but positive) score for that last lineup spot. That's it.
• Bret Holmes -- Just playing around with some lineup combinations and I can also see using Bret Holmes. On the plus side, he did very well in the ARCA series doing his own thing and he starts 38th, so can really only go forward. On the down side, this is his first Truck race ever and this is a small, underfunded, brand new family owned team, so we have no idea how good the truck will be. Given the circumstances, I suspect Bret will take it easy, ride in the back and gain some experience while keeping the truck in one piece. That could work for cash games, but I think the upside is capped right around the B.J. McLeod level - maybe just a touch higher upside for Holmes countered by the risk of it being his and this team's very first Truck race.

Bets
I usually don't place a lot of bets until close to race time, so it's hard for me to also post here. I will try to update if I can.

• ​Kyle Busch -120 to win
• Nemechek -110 Z. Smith
• Crafton -130 Moffitt
• Friesen -130 Enfinger

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