Vegas Trucks

Final Update -- KB and Bilicki all good. No Hill. Ruch, Rohrbaugh and Poole cheap options. Rhodes and Gilliland in the Hill-Ankrum tier. Friesen an option too with poor qualifying. There is so much value down low, can even go Busch and Chastain if you want two studs. I'm leaning that way.

KB down to -160 to win. Would hit that.


Thursday: I'll have some DFS focused material up by Friday morning. For now, I'm hitting Kyle Busch -175 to win the race. He's very likely to win this unless he has a mechanical failure. He's won the last two Spring Vegas races in the Truck Series. And he won all five Truck Series races he entered in 2019. More later . . . 

Friday Morning Update: Very happy to be done with Daytona and the havoc at super speedways. Here are my pre-practice and qualifying notes/targets (I'll try to give a brief update after practice and qualifying Friday afternoon):

• Kyle Busch - All in here. Won all five Truck races he did last year, including a dominating performance in the Spring race at Las Vegas. At the four races he did at 1.5 mile tracks last year, he led at least 92 laps in each race and scored at least 81 DK points in each race. That's really hard to do with how short Truck races are. Barring a mechanical failure, he should dominate. Busch will eat a ton of salary, so I'm focusing the rest of the way on lower priced options. There is plenty of value that will allow you to absorb Kyle's salary.
• Under $5K targets - Josh Bilicki and Timmy Hill. Bilicki will be running for the Reaume team. Their trucks are slow and qualify poorly but tend to be reliable and finish the race with a positive position difference. Bilicki had three Top 20 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks for this team last year with an average position difference of +8 in those races. He's a solid driver and a great option at near minimum price.  Hill is running for their small family owned team. The truck is generally pretty reliable and Timmy does a good job.  They raced three times at 1.5 mile tracks last year and finished 11th and 16th in two of those races. The third race was a 24th place finish but still scored 21 DK points. As long as he doesn't qualify too well, he's another great choice at near minimum price.
• $6K-$7K - I like a handful of guys in this range, including Brennan Poole, Tanner Gray and Ty Majeski.  Poole was very strong at 1.5 mile tracks last year and had four Top 10 finishes there. The issue with him will be whether he qualifies too well and, therefore, carries to much downside risk. Gray and Majeski don't have a ton of experience or track record, but both are with very solid mid-level teams and should have reliable trucks. If either qualifies outside the Top 20, they'd be strong plays.
• Austin Hill - Tyler Ankrum - I really like the group from Austin Hill down to Tyler Ankrum. All of them are good enough drivers in good equipment. Whichever of them don't qualify well offer good cash game plays. There's no way Ankrum or Eckes should be sub-$8k.
• Above Austin Hill - The guys above Austin Hill will probably qualify very well and be too risky for me. Plus they're unlikely to get many laps led or fastest laps with KB in the field. They'll come into play for cash games only if they qualify poorly.
• A few wagers I'm looking at:
  • Already listed Kyle -175 to win.
  • Zane Smith +140 over Todd Gilliland. This is a 50/50 bet for me, so I'll take the +140 side.
  • Christian Eckes -135 over Matt Crafton. Eckes ran 3rd at his two races at 1.5 mile tracks last year, including the Vegas Fall race. He's in top notch KBM equipment with the best crew chief (Rudy Fugle) in the garage. Crafton is solid, but rarely runs in the Top 5.
  • Eckes -135 over Johnny Sauter. Sauter is as likely to crash as finish in the Top 5, so I'll take Eckes again.