vegas xfinity

SATURDAY NOON EST UPDATE - FOUR H2H BETS ADDED IN BOLD BELOW

There's a couple key decisions to make for Saturday's Xfinity race, so let's get right to them:

• I think we'll want to build our lineups around three of these four potential studs -- Noah Gragson, Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton.
  • All of these cars should finish in the Top 10, so you're key decision comes down to whether you want to go all position difference with this group or go with the likely dominator in Cindric.
  • I do think Cindric leads and runs fastest laps out front early in this race. The question is whether it all ends up being enough to overcome the built in position difference upside of the other studs. I'm finding it really hard to go Cindric over Gragson or Allgaier with their built in +30 position difference upside.
  • So, it really comes down to Cindric vs. Burton for me as the third guy. As of now, I'm not decided which way to go here. Cindric was awesome at these 1.5 mile tracks last year, but all it takes is one stupid decision or pit road mistake to set him back. As I go through some possible lineup combinations, the $600 savings by using Burton also gives a little more flexibility on filling out the lineup. It's truly a toss up here and this decision will probably go all the way until lock time for me.
• To use three studs, we're going to need some value options, so let's go over the sub $7k targets in salary order:
  • Brandon Brown - Really solid at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. He finished in the Top 15 in ten of twelve races at those tracks, including 11th and 15th at Las Vegas. In four Las Vegas races, he has not finished lower than 17th.
  • Bayley Currey - Starts 39th, but it's a Mike Harmon car. Leaning toward staying away from this, but it is an option.
  • Colby Howard - Starts 38th in a J.D. Motorsports car. These are usually more reliable than a Harmon car, but Howard blew up last week, so who knows. I prefer Howard over Currey.
  • Josh Williams - Always a rock solid play and not bad starting 24th for $6k. He should move forward a few spots and he's one of the more reliable mid-tier drivers in this series. I don't love it, but I would never fault anyone for using a safer guy like Josh in this spot.
  • Stefan Parsons, Jess Little and Matt Mills - Grouping the B.J. McLeod drivers together here because they are nearly identical plays. All should move up about 5 spots or so if all goes well. If salary were no issue, I would rank them Parsons, Mills, Little.
  • David Starr - Showed very surprising speed last week, holding on to the lead lap throughout the race. I don't think this is a Top 20 car, but he might move up a couple of spots.
  • Joe Graf Jr - Too cheap for a decent car. But Graf is never the most reliable play. He definitely has more upside than the McLeod trio, but the downside is there as well. He finished 20th and 27th last year at Vegas. Generally speaking, he was about an 18th-22nd place car at the 1.5 mile tracks last season as long as nothing went wrong. Hard to pass up at this price.

Bets
May post more Saturday closer to race time.

• Brandon Jones +1300 to win
• Myatt Snider +4000 to win - This is still way off for a top tier car starting from the pole. Closer than the +9000 jackpot we hit last week, but still too high.
• Myatt Snider +100 Riley Herbst
  
• Michael Annett -115 Brett Moffitt
  
• Justin Allgaier +115 Tyler Reddick
  
• Allmendinger EV Tyler Reddick