Watkins glen

Before Watkins Glen, a quick look back to Pocono.  I'm real happy with our analysis and pushing both Harvick and Busch for cash games.  That lineup paid off well for me, hitting all the cash games I entered.  And we did see the ridiculous number of duplicate lineups as feared.  In one cash game, nearly one-third of the contest had the same lineup.  They had Harvick (no Busch) and other guys starting in back.  They were all behind me and tied for the last paying spot and barely got their entry fee back.  The same thing in some tournaments.  The largest FanDuel tournament had a 121-way tie for first place.  Luckily, I got a share of that using only guys we named here last week.  It was actually a really obvious lineup, so I'm happy to have won it, but it wasn't some grand accomplishment.

On to Watkins Glen.  I'm very, very, very concerned about inspection issues.  We have another deal where NASCAR is doing inspections AFTER (instead of before) qualifying.  This is just like last week where we saw about 15 cars have their qualifying speeds disallowed and moved to the back of the starting grid.  Last week, this all happened on Saturday, so we had time Saturday evening to react and set our lineups with the correct starting grid.  This week, the inspection process won't happen until Sunday morning.  So we won't know the starting grid and lineup spots until a few hours (hopefully!) before the race.  It will be a real scramble to determine and enter proper lineups after the official starting grid is announced.  And, of course, the official starting grid is critical because it is what is used to determine positions gained and lost on both DK and FD.  So it has the potential to be a real big mess if a bunch of cars lose their qualifying time and/or if news of the official starting grid is delayed.

Given the potential craziness on Sunday, I'm going to do it a little differently this week.  I'm going to list a bunch of guys I like based on track history and a bunch of guys I would likely avoid at all costs.  I think that will give you all the most knowledge and flexibility to deal with whatever comes our way on Sunday.  I'm going to start today with the AVOID list.  Positive targets will come in the next update.

AVOID LIST  -- Unless these guys are starting really far back, I would avoid them entirely:

• Bubba Wallace -- As glad as I am that Bubba survived that crash last week, I have no interest this week.  He had a lot of trouble earlier this season at Sonoma and didn't show speed at Watkins Glen in two XFinity Series races.
  
• Kasey Kahne -- Never finished higher than 12th here even though he's been in good cars much of his career.  Now he's in lesser equipment, so he's not going to do any better.
  
• Paul Menard -- Not much of a road racer.  12th is his best finish here and his typical finish is in the high teens or low 20s.
  
• Ryan Newman -- Very similar profile to Menard.  He has no Top 10s in the last ten races here and generally finishes in the mid-high teens.
  
• Austin Dillon -- 26th or worse in the last three races here.
  
• Rickey Stenhouse -- Has never finished higher than 18th here.
  
• David Ragan -- Has finished in the Top 20 only one time in eleven races.  Most finishes are in the high 20s.
  
• Matt DiBenedetto -- Best finish here is 26th.