Watkins Glen xfinity

82 laps from Watkins Glen on Saturday afternoon for the Xfinity Series.  Kyle Busch will be in the #18 car and I think the most likely scenario is that we see him start up front, lead most of the laps and finish up front.  I'm obviously not going out on a limb with that take, but let's make sure not to overthink this one.

Since Kyle should get most of the dominator points, we'll be looking to fill the rest of the lineup with guys we feel can get a great finishing position with a few positive position difference points and guys starting further back that we think can move up 8-10 spots or so.  Here is who I'm targeting heading into qualifying on Saturday morning:

• Kyle Busch -- He's a virtual lock for me.  Blaney and Allmendinger might keep it somewhat close but Kyle is easily the best driver and will be in the best equipment of those three.  He hasn't done many Xfinity Series road course races lately.  His last was Watkins Glen in 2017.  He started 2nd, won the race, led 43 laps, had 31 fastest laps and had a race high 74 DK points.  Expect something similar.  He was about half a second faster than anyone else per lap in both practices Friday.
• Other than Blaney and Allmendinger, high priced guys I feel most confident to finish in the Top 5-8 are Justin Allgaier and Cole Custer.
  • Allgaier has seven Top 8 finishes in the last ten road course races.  He's finished 7th, 4th and 3rd in the last three Watkins Glen races with +2, +3 and +7 position difference. 
  • Custer has five straight Top 8 finishes on road courses.  Last year at Watkins Glen, he started 12th and finished 6th for 44 DK points.  I am a bit worried that he has to go to a back up and will probably save the salary here to get stronger plays throughout the lineup to pair with Kyle Busch.
  • Best guess on the Top 5 is Busch, Allmendinger, Allgaier, Blaney and Custer.
  • I like Cindric in a way, but he's too inconsistent for cash games.  In five road course races, he's finished 16th, 13th, 2nd, 37th and 3rd.  All over the map.  I'm guessing with three Cup level guys in the race, he's going to push it too hard to keep up with them and make a mistake.  Only on board here if he starts farther back.
• In the next tier, I like Preece, Briscoe, Labbe and Chastain.
  • Preece has two recent road course races in the Xfinity Series and finished 4th both times.  Last year at the Charlotte Roval, he started 10th and finished 4th for 47 DK points.  In 2017 at The Glen, he started 8th and finished 4th for 48 DK points.  He's in the #8 JR Motorsports car which has been strong all year.  Preece has been in that ride three times this year and finished 4th, 8th and 7th.
  • Briscoe seems under priced at $8k.  He led 33 laps and won the last Xfinity Series road course race at the Roval last year.  However, he's never raced at the Glen in the Xfinity Series.  He showed Top 10 speed in practice on Friday.
  • Labbe is a very solid road course guy who did well at all four road course races last season.  He's probably priced up a bit too high though unless he starts really far back.  I'd project him for a 12th-18th place finish.
  • Chastain has finished in the Top 20 in the last seven road course races.   He's not going to win, lead laps or get fastest laps.  But he's one of the most reliable bets for a Top 20 finish outside the guys driving for the power teams.  He might also be priced a bit too high for a guy with a limited ceiling unless he starts really far back.
  • Note that Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek and Noah Gragson all ran well in the Truck Series road course race last year in Canada.  Haley won, Nemechek was 2nd, and Gragson won the first two stages and led a race high 35 laps.  None is a road course ringer by any stretch, but they should be able to hold their own and should be considered if they qualify outside the Top 12 or so.
• At the bottom, Tommy Joe Martins and Josh Bilicki are tempting.  I'd also be OK with Scott Heckert or David Starr.
  • For Martins, he's switched over to the MBM team, which I tend to avoid at all costs because they are not reliable.  But he is sponsored and they ran 23 laps in final practice -- which you wouldn't do if you were parking it halfway through the race.  Now this team is still highly susceptible to mechanical failure, but it looks like they'll at least go into the race trying to run the whole thing -- which could offer really good value at near minimum price.
  • Same thing for Bilicki.  The #93 team is usually a start and park, but they run select races full length when they have sponsorship.  He's got sponsors and they ran 20 laps between the two practice sessions which, again, would be more then a parker would do.
• A couple of situations to avoid:
  • I'm worried about Josh Williams.  He tweeted that they had a motor problem and his team did not have a backup.  They "found one" from someone else in the garage and "will be able to start" the race on Saturday.  I'm usually all aboard this ride, but not this week.
  • Also, two cars I think will be parking for sure during the race are the #13 (Finchum) and #38 (Yeley).  Neither has sponsorship or a full crew.